Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Visual Novel + Dark: a typical launch earns $1,858 in its first year

That is the median of 67 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 8 of 132 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 9.1 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 22% on the year before: 112 against 92.

China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese
One game dominates the figure

Price: $1,858
Price vs a year earlier: −27.0%
Releases, 12 months: 112
Upcoming games: 216
Games on the store: 627

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Visual Novel + Dark on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.10%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.07% to 0.12%	17 ranked of 216 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#1,791 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter. China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese One game dominates the figure Listed after unflagged rows on this board	0.91xhits against expected	0.62x to 1.38x	132 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#6,130 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	+18%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−11% to +45%	34 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#832 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	+5%review growth against same-age games	−2% to +14%	34 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#595 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 8
Expected: 9.1

Launches: 132
Hit rate: 6.1%3.5% to 11.4%
Expected rate: 6.9%
Against expected: 0.91x0.62x to 1.38x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

132 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $61
Median: $1,618
Top tenth: $46,940

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 112
Prior 12 months: 92

Change: +22%
Against Steam: −11%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

Visual NovelGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.
DarkNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Visual Novel

pairs with Visual Novel

Visual Novel + FMV$65,06531 launches priced, 48 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + LGBTQ+$6,05083 launches priced, 159 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Detective$5,29368 launches priced, 134 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Investigation$4,88542 launches priced, 55 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Immersive Sim$4,55364 launches priced, 115 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Romance$3,639179 launches priced, 277 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Visual Novel

More with Dark

pairs with Dark

RPG + Dark$3,32642 launches priced, 68 releases in 12 months
Dark + Female Protagonist$3,04831 launches priced, 31 releases in 12 months
Dark + Supernatural$2,48942 launches priced, 63 releases in 12 months
Story Rich + Dark$2,427120 launches priced, 161 releases in 12 months
Dark + Choices Matter$2,30338 launches priced, 62 releases in 12 months
Surreal + Dark$1,69738 launches priced, 67 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Dark

Verdicts

in development

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