Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026
Niches / Dark / Choices Matter
Dark + Choices Matter: a typical launch earns $2,303 in its first year
That is the median of 38 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 6 of 75 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 3.9 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 51% on the year before: 62 against 41.
- Price
- $2,303 median of 38 launches
- Price vs a year earlier
- +13.8% four quarters on the four before
- Releases, 12 months
- 62 41 the year before
- Upcoming games
- 190 coming soon on Steam
- Games on the store
- 412 carrying both tags
Boards
as of 30 Sep 2026Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.
| Board | Value | Interval | Sample | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it. | 0.12%share of upcoming wishlist heat | 0.09% to 0.16% | 23 ranked of 190 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026 | #1,514 of 7,193pairs on this board |
| Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter. | 1.31xhits against expected | 0.89x to 2.04x | 75 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old) | #1,324 of 6,324pairs on this board |
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.
| −6%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam | −33% to +19% | 21 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months | #1,603 of 2,361pairs on this board |
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.
| +2%review growth against same-age games | −7% to +10% | 21 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025 | #1,903 of 2,461pairs on this board |
Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.
Launch success
launches 6 to 30 months oldMatured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.
- Launches
- 75
- Hit rate
- 8.0%4.5% to 11.8%
- Expected rate
- 5.2%
- Against expected
- 1.31x0.89x to 2.04x
Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.
Revenue spread
75 launchesEstimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.
- Bottom tenth
- $80
- Median
- $1,314
- Top tenth
- $45,171
Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.
Supply
raw release countsGames released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.
- Change
- +51%
- Against Steam
- +8%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases
Parent tags
- DarkNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
- Choices MatterNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
Comparable games
8 indie titlesThe biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.
The Coffin of Andy and Leyley (opens the Steam store)2023 · 36,744 reviews, 96% positiveest. $8.5M
No, I'm not a Human (opens the Steam store)2025 · 27,403 reviews, 93% positiveest. $8.2M
Heads Will Roll: Reforged (opens the Steam store)2023 · 1,664 reviews, 82% positiveest. $842k
Stygian: Outer Gods (opens the Steam store)2025 · 517 reviews, 80% positiveest. $262k
You Will Die Here Tonight (opens the Steam store)2023 · 596 reviews, 89% positiveest. $241k
THRESHOLD (opens the Steam store)2024 · 1,105 reviews, 84% positiveest. $224k
SAEKO: Giantess Dating Sim (opens the Steam store)2025 · 724 reviews, 87% positiveest. $220k
Mojika - Truth Rears Its Ugly Head (opens the Steam store)2025 · 412 reviews, 77% positiveest. $208k
More with Dark
pairs with Dark- RPG + Dark$3,32642 launches priced, 68 releases in 12 months
- Dark + Female Protagonist$3,04831 launches priced, 31 releases in 12 months
- Dark + Supernatural$2,48942 launches priced, 63 releases in 12 months
- Story Rich + Dark$2,427120 launches priced, 161 releases in 12 months
- Visual Novel + Dark$1,85867 launches priced, 112 releases in 12 months
- Surreal + Dark$1,69738 launches priced, 67 releases in 12 months
More with Choices Matter
pairs with Choices Matter- Choices Matter + Management$6,87135 launches priced, 79 releases in 12 months
- Mystery + Choices Matter$6,00949 launches priced, 114 releases in 12 months
- Choices Matter + Dating Sim$4,06442 launches priced, 66 releases in 12 months
- RPG + Choices Matter$3,339128 launches priced, 212 releases in 12 months
- Character Customization + Choices Matter$3,15735 launches priced, 42 releases in 12 months
- Story Rich + Choices Matter$3,038225 launches priced, 352 releases in 12 months
Verdicts
in developmentGMD Verdicts will be a written read on a niche, built from the same data and the published method on this site. Join the early list and we will email you when the first ones are ready. Nothing on this page is held back while you wait.