Visual Novel + Female Protagonist: a typical launch earns $3,237 in its first year

That is the median of 161 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 21 of 310 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 32.1 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 24% on the year before: 252 against 203.

China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese

Price: $3,237
Price vs a year earlier: −23.8%
Releases, 12 months: 252
Upcoming games: 554
Games on the store: 1,841

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Visual Novel + Female Protagonist on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.43%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.28% to 0.60%	60 ranked of 554 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#544 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter. China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese Listed after unflagged rows on this board	0.68xhits against expected	0.51x to 0.93x	310 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#6,269 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches. One game dominates the figure China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese	+11%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−6% to +32%	107 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#1,038 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal. One game dominates the figure China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese Listed after unflagged rows on this board	0%review growth against same-age games	−9% to +9%	107 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#1,958 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 21
Expected: 32.1

Launches: 310
Hit rate: 6.8%4.7% to 13.0%
Expected rate: 10.3%
Against expected: 0.68x0.51x to 0.93x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

310 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $81
Median: $2,792
Top tenth: $65,090

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 252
Prior 12 months: 203

Change: +24%
Against Steam: −10%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

Visual NovelGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.
Female ProtagonistNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Visual Novel

pairs with Visual Novel

Visual Novel + FMV$65,06531 launches priced, 48 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + LGBTQ+$6,05083 launches priced, 159 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Detective$5,29368 launches priced, 134 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Investigation$4,88542 launches priced, 55 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Immersive Sim$4,55364 launches priced, 115 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Romance$3,639179 launches priced, 277 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Visual Novel

More with Female Protagonist

pairs with Female Protagonist

Hack and Slash + Female Protagonist$10,32730 launches priced, 52 releases in 12 months
JRPG + Female Protagonist$6,70840 launches priced, 47 releases in 12 months
Female Protagonist + Action Roguelike$6,55637 launches priced, 55 releases in 12 months
Mystery + Female Protagonist$5,30753 launches priced, 76 releases in 12 months
Female Protagonist + LGBTQ+$4,85853 launches priced, 86 releases in 12 months
Bullet Hell + Female Protagonist$4,45135 launches priced, 39 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Female Protagonist

Verdicts

in development

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