Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Magic + RPG
Games tagged both Magic and RPG: 160 indie paid launches, 8 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Magic + RPG priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats Magic and trails RPG; priced $10 to $20 it trails both its tags.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Magic + RPG trails both its tags: 6.1 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 7.3 in 100 for Magic and 18.5 in 100 for RPG.
That is 1 in 16, about 0.3 times the 18.6 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 33 games tagged both Magic and RPG priced $10 to $20. 6.1 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 7.8 for Magic-only games and 19.0 for RPG-only games, so games with both tags did worse than games with either tag alone.
Both: 33 games priced $10 to $20; 6.1 in 100 earned $100k+ (1 in 16), typical first-year earnings $2,914.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 33 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkChanged recently +1. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: moves the answer. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Magic + RPG is changed recently +1: Last 18 months moves the answer by more than a quarter, and 1 more lens too. It holds in 1 of 3.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view143 of 160 launches | Without the breakout159 of 160 launches | Last 18 months80 of 160 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1608 hits | 1438 hits | 1597 hits | 804 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 5.0 in 1001 in 20 | 5.6 in 1001 in 18 | 4.4 in 1001 in 23 | 5.0 in 1001 in 20 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $887top tenth $39,670+ | $1,132 | $860 | $607 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | +12.0%0.6 more in 100 | -12.0%0.6 fewer in 100 | 0.0%no change |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +27.6%$245 more | -3.0%$27 less | -31.6%$280 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Moves the answer | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Magic and RPG, 6 to 30 months old: 160 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 17 of 160 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Eternal Strands (27.3% of the money): 159 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 80 of 160.
Magic holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Magic | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view555 of 589 launches | Without the breakout588 of 589 launches | Last 18 months305 of 589 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 58925 hits | 55525 hits | 58824 hits | 30514 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 4.2 in 1001 in 24 | 4.5 in 1001 in 22 | 4.1 in 1001 in 24 | 4.6 in 1001 in 22 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $606top tenth $26,501+ | $607 | $606 | $533 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | +7.1%0.3 more in 100 | -2.4%0.1 fewer in 100 | +9.5%0.4 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +0.2%$1 more | 0.0%no change | -12.0%$73 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Magic, 6 to 30 months old: 589 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 34 of 589 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, The Spell Brigade (16.6% of the money): 588 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 305 of 589.
RPG holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| RPG | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view3,513 of 4,151 launches | Without the breakout4,150 of 4,151 launches | Last 18 months2,257 of 4,151 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 4,151319 hits | 3,513268 hits | 4,150318 hits | 2,257162 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 7.7 in 1001 in 13 | 7.6 in 1001 in 13 | 7.7 in 1001 in 13 | 7.2 in 1001 in 14 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $708top tenth $62,744+ | $728 | $708 | $607 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -1.3%0.1 fewer in 100 | 0.0%no change | -6.5%0.5 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +2.8%$20 more | 0.0%no change | -14.3%$101 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged RPG, 6 to 30 months old: 4,151 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 638 of 4,151 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Path of Exile 2 (16.6% of the money): 4,150 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,257 of 4,151.
A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Magic + RPG moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.