Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Visual Novel + 3D: a typical launch earns $554 in its first year

That is the median of 53 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 10 of 101 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 8.8 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 13% on the year before: 78 against 69.

Price: $554
Price vs a year earlier: −21.7%
Releases, 12 months: 78
Upcoming games: 188
Games on the store: 486

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Visual Novel + 3D on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.07%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.03% to 0.11%	15 ranked of 188 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#2,118 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.	1.10xhits against expected	0.77x to 1.62x	101 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#2,186 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches. One game dominates the figure	+3%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−25% to +41%	22 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#1,332 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal. One game dominates the figure Listed after unflagged rows on this board	−17%review growth against same-age games	−33% to −1%	22 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#2,457 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 10
Expected: 8.8

Launches: 101
Hit rate: 9.9%4.4% to 16.2%
Expected rate: 8.7%
Against expected: 1.10x0.77x to 1.62x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

101 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $0
Median: $484
Top tenth: $86,313

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 78
Prior 12 months: 69

Change: +13%
Against Steam: −19%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

Visual NovelGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.
3DNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Visual Novel

pairs with Visual Novel

Visual Novel + FMV$65,06531 launches priced, 48 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + LGBTQ+$6,05083 launches priced, 159 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Detective$5,29368 launches priced, 134 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Investigation$4,88542 launches priced, 55 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Immersive Sim$4,55364 launches priced, 115 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Romance$3,639179 launches priced, 277 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Visual Novel

More with 3D

pairs with 3D

3D + Dark Humor$3,90132 launches priced, 46 releases in 12 months
3D + Cozy$3,23738 launches priced, 91 releases in 12 months
3D + Economy$3,15761 launches priced, 109 releases in 12 months
3D + Management$2,196130 launches priced, 192 releases in 12 months
Story Rich + 3D$2,162144 launches priced, 256 releases in 12 months
3D + Resource Management$2,02434 launches priced, 66 releases in 12 months

Every pair with 3D

Verdicts

in development

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