Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026
Survival + Sci-fi: a typical launch earns $1,312 in its first year
That is the median of 40 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 7 of 76 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 6.4 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases held level on the year before: 45 against 45.
- One game dominates the figure
- Price
- $1,312 median of 40 launches
- Price vs a year earlier
- −43.5% four quarters on the four before
- Releases, 12 months
- 45 45 the year before
- Upcoming games
- 229 coming soon on Steam
- Games on the store
- 488 carrying both tags
Boards
as of 30 Sep 2026Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.
| Board | Value | Interval | Sample | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it. | 0.28%share of upcoming wishlist heat | 0.20% to 0.37% | 35 ranked of 229 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026 | #815 of 7,193pairs on this board |
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.
| 1.07xhits against expected | 0.73x to 1.63x | 76 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old) | #2,400 of 6,324pairs on this board |
| Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches. | +35%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam | −8% to +76% | 19 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months | #383 of 2,361pairs on this board |
| Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal. | 0%review growth against same-age games | −14% to +15% | 19 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025 | #829 of 2,461pairs on this board |
Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.
Launch success
launches 6 to 30 months oldMatured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.
- Launches
- 76
- Hit rate
- 9.2%6.1% to 15.6%
- Expected rate
- 8.4%
- Against expected
- 1.07x0.73x to 1.63x
Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.
Revenue spread
76 launchesEstimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.
- Bottom tenth
- $0
- Median
- $1,237
- Top tenth
- $58,890
Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.
Supply
raw release countsGames released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.
- Change
- 0%
- Against Steam
- −26%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases
Parent tags
Comparable games
8 indie titlesThe biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.
- Abiotic Factor (opens the Steam store)2024 · 42,311 reviews, 95% positiveest. $29M
- Pacific Drive (opens the Steam store)2024 · 21,607 reviews, 83% positiveest. $13M
- The Alters (opens the Steam store)2025 · 15,441 reviews, 90% positiveest. $10M
- Space Engineers 2 (opens the Steam store)2025 · 5,166 reviews, 74% positiveest. $3.1M
- Astrometica (opens the Steam store)2024 · 2,922 reviews, 82% positiveest. $1.2M
- AETHUS (opens the Steam store)2026 · 2,048 reviews, 94% positiveest. $829k
- SENTRY (opens the Steam store)2024 · 857 reviews, 82% positiveest. $347k
- RIPOUT (opens the Steam store)2023 · 784 reviews, 65% positiveest. $317k
More with Survival
pairs with Survival- Survival + Open World Survival Craft$18,44140 launches priced, 51 releases in 12 months
- Survival + Colony Sim$9,88130 launches priced, 35 releases in 12 months
- Survival + Co-op$7,36134 launches priced, 70 releases in 12 months
- Survival + Base Building$6,75592 launches priced, 113 releases in 12 months
- Survival + Open World$5,44390 launches priced, 136 releases in 12 months
- Building + Survival$4,85567 launches priced, 100 releases in 12 months
More with Sci-fi
pairs with Sci-fi- Sci-fi + Anime$4,24936 launches priced, 49 releases in 12 months
- Sci-fi + Cyberpunk$3,08346 launches priced, 61 releases in 12 months
- Sci-fi + Cute$1,80330 launches priced, 31 releases in 12 months
- Story Rich + Sci-fi$1,61786 launches priced, 117 releases in 12 months
- RPG + Sci-fi$1,61665 launches priced, 76 releases in 12 months
- Exploration + Sci-fi$1,457125 launches priced, 163 releases in 12 months
Verdicts
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