Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026
Strategy + Sandbox: a typical launch earns $3,550 in its first year
That is the median of 144 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 63 of 281 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 36.2 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 58% on the year before: 259 against 164.
- Price
- $3,550 median of 144 launches
- Price vs a year earlier
- −45.0% four quarters on the four before
- Releases, 12 months
- 259 164 the year before
- Upcoming games
- 852 coming soon on Steam
- Games on the store
- 2,078 carrying both tags
Boards
as of 30 Sep 2026Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.
| Board | Value | Interval | Sample | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it. | 3.53%share of upcoming wishlist heat | 1.98% to 5.91% | 127 ranked of 853 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026 | #51 of 7,193pairs on this board |
| Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter. | 1.68xhits against expected | 1.41x to 1.99x | 281 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old) | #410 of 6,324pairs on this board |
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.
| −16%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam | −28% to −2% | 136 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months | #1,903 of 2,361pairs on this board |
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.
| −3%review growth against same-age games | −9% to +5% | 136 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025 | #2,194 of 2,461pairs on this board |
Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.
Launch success
launches 6 to 30 months oldMatured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.
- Launches
- 281
- Hit rate
- 22.4%16.9% to 30.9%
- Expected rate
- 12.9%
- Against expected
- 1.68x1.41x to 1.99x
Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.
Revenue spread
281 launchesEstimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.
- Bottom tenth
- $80
- Median
- $3,683
- Top tenth
- $485,225
Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.
Supply
raw release countsGames released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.
- Change
- +58%
- Against Steam
- +15%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases
Parent tags
Comparable games
8 indie titlesThe biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.
- Manor Lords (opens the Steam store)2024 · 77,221 reviews, 84% positiveest. $60M
- shapez 2 - Factory (opens the Steam store)2024 · 13,937 reviews, 96% positiveest. $8.1M
- Norland (opens the Steam store)2024 · 8,941 reviews, 81% positiveest. $5M
- Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition (opens the Steam store)2025 · 10,692 reviews, 92% positiveest. $4.2M
- Town to City (opens the Steam store)2025 · 6,214 reviews, 97% positiveest. $3.7M
- Stronghold: Definitive Edition (opens the Steam store)2023 · 9,800 reviews, 86% positiveest. $2.9M
- Tavern Keeper 🍻 (opens the Steam store)2025 · 4,578 reviews, 94% positiveest. $2.7M
- The Crust (opens the Steam store)2024 · 3,764 reviews, 75% positiveest. $2.4M
More with Strategy
pairs with Strategy- Strategy + Roguelike Deckbuilder$8,599104 launches priced, 217 releases in 12 months
- Strategy + Base Building$6,139160 launches priced, 260 releases in 12 months
- Strategy + Turn-Based$5,85566 launches priced, 104 releases in 12 months
- Strategy + Historical$4,25980 launches priced, 157 releases in 12 months
- Strategy + Party-Based RPG$3,88255 launches priced, 102 releases in 12 months
- Strategy + Story Rich$3,64284 launches priced, 149 releases in 12 months
More with Sandbox
pairs with Sandbox- Sandbox + Multiplayer$32,53338 launches priced, 71 releases in 12 months
- Sandbox + Resource Management$18,39749 launches priced, 96 releases in 12 months
- Sandbox + Economy$15,26966 launches priced, 136 releases in 12 months
- Sandbox + Management$11,910116 launches priced, 204 releases in 12 months
- Sandbox + City Builder$11,53977 launches priced, 92 releases in 12 months
- Sandbox + Colony Sim$10,01834 launches priced, 53 releases in 12 months
Verdicts
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