Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Simulation + War: a typical launch earns $2,125 in its first year

That is the median of 41 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 10 of 69 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 8.3 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 48% on the year before: 74 against 50.

Big publishers: over 85% from majors or $40+ games

Price: $2,125
Price vs a year earlier: −47.5%
Releases, 12 months: 74
Upcoming games: 198
Games on the store: 620

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Simulation + War on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it. One game dominates the figure Listed after unflagged rows on this board	1.54%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.54% to 3.11%	36 ranked of 198 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#4,127 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter. Big publishers: over 85% from majors or $40+ games	1.15xhits against expected	0.81x to 1.66x	69 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#1,952 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	+22%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−10% to +78%	34 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#691 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	+31%review growth against same-age games	+17% to +48%	34 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#2 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 10
Expected: 8.3

Launches: 69
Hit rate: 15.7%8.3% to 27.3%
Expected rate: 12.0%
Against expected: 1.15x0.81x to 1.66x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

70 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $64
Median: $2,205
Top tenth: $173,385

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 74
Prior 12 months: 50

Change: +48%
Against Steam: +7%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

SimulationGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.
WarNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Simulation

pairs with Simulation

Simulation + Shop Keeper$32,26936 launches priced, 330 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Cozy$15,70676 launches priced, 253 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Online Co-Op$11,02868 launches priced, 133 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Multiplayer$8,980122 launches priced, 253 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Base Building$7,38289 launches priced, 173 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Economy$6,979210 launches priced, 540 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Simulation

More with War

pairs with War

RTS + War$4,48634 launches priced, 38 releases in 12 months
War + Historical$4,39930 launches priced, 43 releases in 12 months
War + Turn-Based Tactics$4,30130 launches priced, 35 releases in 12 months
War + Turn-Based Strategy$3,84640 launches priced, 49 releases in 12 months
War + 2D$3,16035 launches priced, 55 releases in 12 months
Strategy + War$2,942102 launches priced, 126 releases in 12 months

Every pair with War

Verdicts

in development

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