Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Simulation + Visual Novel: a typical launch earns $1,214 in its first year

That is the median of 149 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 24 of 320 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 32.5 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 40% on the year before: 254 against 182.

China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese

Price: $1,214
Price vs a year earlier: −42.3%
Releases, 12 months: 254
Upcoming games: 533
Games on the store: 1,647

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Simulation + Visual Novel on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.25%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.19% to 0.30%	44 ranked of 533 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#911 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter. China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese Listed after unflagged rows on this board	0.76xhits against expected	0.57x to 1.01x	320 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#6,231 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches. China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese	−10%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−24% to +7%	65 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#1,729 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal. China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese	−8%review growth against same-age games	−16% to 0%	65 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#1,160 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 24
Expected: 32.5

Launches: 320
Hit rate: 7.5%6.0% to 12.0%
Expected rate: 10.2%
Against expected: 0.76x0.57x to 1.01x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

320 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $0
Median: $1,492
Top tenth: $65,681

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 254
Prior 12 months: 182

Change: +40%
Against Steam: +2%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

SimulationGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.
Visual NovelGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Simulation

pairs with Simulation

Simulation + Shop Keeper$32,26936 launches priced, 330 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Cozy$15,70676 launches priced, 253 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Online Co-Op$11,02868 launches priced, 133 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Multiplayer$8,980122 launches priced, 253 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Base Building$7,38289 launches priced, 173 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Economy$6,979210 launches priced, 540 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Simulation

More with Visual Novel

pairs with Visual Novel

Visual Novel + FMV$65,06531 launches priced, 48 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + LGBTQ+$6,05083 launches priced, 159 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Detective$5,29368 launches priced, 134 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Investigation$4,88542 launches priced, 55 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Immersive Sim$4,55364 launches priced, 115 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Romance$3,639179 launches priced, 277 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Visual Novel

Verdicts

in development

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