Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026
Horror + Cinematic: a typical launch earns $1,830 in its first year
That is the median of 78 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 10 of 153 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 8.4 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases fell 6% on the year before: 83 against 88.
- Big publishers: over 85% from majors or $40+ games
- Price
- $1,830 median of 78 launches
- Price vs a year earlier
- −24.6% four quarters on the four before
- Releases, 12 months
- 83 88 the year before
- Upcoming games
- 188 coming soon on Steam
- Games on the store
- 520 carrying both tags
Boards
as of 30 Sep 2026Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.
| Board | Value | Interval | Sample | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.
| 2.56%share of upcoming wishlist heat | 0.26% to 4.92% | 24 ranked of 188 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026 | #3,958 of 7,193pairs on this board |
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.
| 1.14xhits against expected | 0.79x to 1.69x | 153 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old) | #2,022 of 6,324pairs on this board |
| Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches. | +51%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam | +17% to +97% | 29 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months | #169 of 2,361pairs on this board |
| Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal. | +7%review growth against same-age games | −1% to +15% | 29 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025 | #498 of 2,461pairs on this board |
Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.
Launch success
launches 6 to 30 months oldMatured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.
- Launches
- 153
- Hit rate
- 6.5%4.1% to 10.5%
- Expected rate
- 5.5%
- Against expected
- 1.14x0.79x to 1.69x
Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.
Revenue spread
153 launchesEstimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.
- Bottom tenth
- $100
- Median
- $1,942
- Top tenth
- $39,997
Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.
Supply
raw release countsGames released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.
- Change
- −6%
- Against Steam
- −29%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases
Parent tags
Comparable games
8 indie titlesThe biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.
- ROUTINE (opens the Steam store)2025 · 7,430 reviews, 91% positiveest. $3.8M
- INDIKA (opens the Steam store)2024 · 7,069 reviews, 89% positiveest. $3.5M
- The Casting of Frank Stone™ (opens the Steam store)2024 · 5,599 reviews, 62% positiveest. $3.3M
- The Midnight Walk (opens the Steam store)2025 · 2,717 reviews, 92% positiveest. $1.7M
- A.I.L.A (opens the Steam store)2025 · 891 reviews, 81% positiveest. $541k
- Kugayama Shiori's Death Diary (opens the Steam store)2026 · 996 reviews, 95% positiveest. $504k
- Amenti (opens the Steam store)2025 · 2,195 reviews, 80% positiveest. $311k
- Doll Impostor (opens the Steam store)2024 · 969 reviews, 92% positiveest. $235k
More with Horror
pairs with Horror- Horror + Co-op$7,08089 launches priced, 127 releases in 12 months
- Horror + Online Co-Op$5,819120 launches priced, 169 releases in 12 months
- Horror + Multiplayer$5,680106 launches priced, 172 releases in 12 months
- Horror + Lovecraftian$3,41850 launches priced, 72 releases in 12 months
- Horror + Roguelike$3,33937 launches priced, 73 releases in 12 months
- Horror + Text-Based$2,83130 launches priced, 65 releases in 12 months
More with Cinematic
pairs with Cinematic- Cinematic + Immersive Sim$24,23132 launches priced, 35 releases in 12 months
- Psychological Horror + Cinematic$5,00947 launches priced, 58 releases in 12 months
- Cinematic + Mystery$4,60234 launches priced, 41 releases in 12 months
- Cinematic + Interactive Fiction$4,18748 launches priced, 48 releases in 12 months
- Story Rich + Cinematic$4,03368 launches priced, 73 releases in 12 months
- Cinematic + Walking Simulator$3,57532 launches priced, 57 releases in 12 months
Verdicts
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