Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Casual + Idler: a typical launch earns $404 in its first year

That is the median of 385 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 48 of 868 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 14.9 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 164% on the year before: 1,275 against 483.

Price: $404
Price vs a year earlier: −29.6%
Releases, 12 months: 1,275
Upcoming games: 1,701
Games on the store: 4,129

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Casual + Idler on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.42%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.34% to 0.53%	53 ranked of 1,702 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#558 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.	2.85xhits against expected	2.29x to 3.54x	868 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#18 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	−56%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−60% to −50%	128 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#2,337 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	−16%review growth against same-age games	−24% to −8%	128 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#1,484 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 48
Expected: 14.9

Launches: 868
Hit rate: 5.5%4.0% to 8.7%
Expected rate: 1.7%
Against expected: 2.85x2.29x to 3.54x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

868 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $20
Median: $606
Top tenth: $34,164

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 1,275
Prior 12 months: 483

Change: +164%
Against Steam: +94%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

CasualNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
IdlerGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Casual

pairs with Casual

Casual + Job Simulator$8,44230 launches priced, 54 releases in 12 months
Casual + LGBTQ+$4,15442 launches priced, 95 releases in 12 months
Casual + Romance$2,61486 launches priced, 137 releases in 12 months
Casual + Economy$2,204112 launches priced, 302 releases in 12 months
Casual + Online Co-Op$1,970104 launches priced, 272 releases in 12 months
Casual + Capitalism$1,92351 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Casual

More with Idler

pairs with Idler

Cozy + Idler$3,51835 launches priced, 157 releases in 12 months
Collectathon + Idler$1,77756 launches priced, 144 releases in 12 months
Nature + Idler$1,66633 launches priced, 83 releases in 12 months
Management + Idler$1,48690 launches priced, 270 releases in 12 months
Idler + Creature Collector$1,45476 launches priced, 140 releases in 12 months
Building + Idler$1,44436 launches priced, 59 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Idler

Verdicts

in development

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