Genres

Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.

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on 30 Sep 2026

Genres 1 Oct

Of 264 genres with 30+ launches at any price, West-facing view, 154 beat the 1 in 16 base rate. Price moves the odds most: 1 in 192 under $5, 42 in 100 at $20 to $40.154 of 264 genres beat the 1 in 16 base rate.154 beat the base rate.

Cohort median $606

Genres

Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.

Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 1 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.

Best niches

All prices

Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch

Capitalism + Incrementalabout 13 times expected at its prices14 in 100
1Capitalism + Incremental14 in 10050 launches2Casual + Desktop Companion28 in 10047 launches3Desktop Companion + Idler25 in 10064 launches4Desktop Companion + Relaxing30 in 10043 launches5Comedy + Memes10 in 10049 launches

Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.

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Best nichesFree until launchClick to unlockTag pairs that beat the odds

The genre list

The West-facing view lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.

Best odds at my priceChance of $100k+, read within one price band.Opens $10 to $20, Standard lens.Steady marketsHolds in every lens and no single game owns it.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 31 in 100. 153 match.Biggest typical yearWhat the middle launch earned, highest first.Now: Extraction Shooter, $68,810 typical. 264 match.Biggest upsideWhat the top tenth earned at least.Not computed for lenses yet.Proven at scale100+ launches and above the base rate.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 31 in 100. 109 match.Busiest marketsMost launches first: where the competition is.Now: Puzzle, 5,529 launches. 264 match.
Hide one-hit markets50 outHide small samples24 out

264 of 266 genres have 30+ launches at any price, West-facing view. Sorted by chance of $100k+, highest first.

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Genres at any price, West-facing view, sorted by chance of $100k+. The first row is the base rate.
Rank#GenreChance of $100k+Typical yearTop 1 in 10LaunchesMarkersPin
All games at any price, West-facing viewthe base rate: the row to beat 1 in 161,804 of 29,637 $606not computed 29,637
1 47 in 100 earned $100k+, from 30 launches 47 in 10014 hits $68,810 not computed 30 1-hitSmall Pin Extraction Shooter
2 33 in 100 earned $100k+, from 30 launches 33 in 10010 hits $15,561 not computed 30 Small Pin Organizing
3 31 in 100 earned $100k+, from 107 launches 31 in 10033 hits $21,248 not computed 107 none Pin Open World Survival Craft
4 25 in 100 earned $100k+, from 32 launches 25 in 1008 hits $16,665 not computed 32 1-hitSmallAudience Pin MMORPG
5 23 in 100 earned $100k+, from 35 launches 23 in 1008 hits $2,262 not computed 35 Small Pin Rome
6 21 in 100 earned $100k+, from 67 launches 21 in 10014 hits $4,209 not computed 67 none Pin World War II
7 20 in 100 earned $100k+, from 599 launches 20 in 100120 hits $3,683 not computed 599 none Pin Base Building
8 19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 67 launches 19 in 10013 hits $6,770 not computed 67 Audience Pin Desktop Companion
9 19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 777 launches 19 in 100148 hits $4,451 not computed 777 none Pin Online Co-Op
10 Co-op19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 772 launches 19 in 100146 hits $3,936 not computed 772 none Pin Co-op

19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 772 launches at any price, West-facing view. That is about 3.1 times the base rate.

Base rate at any price, West-facing view: 1 in 16 (1,804 of 29,637 launches earned $100k+).

Typical first year $3,936. Top 1 in 10 is not computed for lenses yet.

Lens check, all pricesHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.

No warning markers: no single game holds half the money, the sample is 50+ launches and the audience split is small.

Chance of $100k+ at every price (Standard lens)
PriceChanceLaunchesTypical
All prices19 in 100788$3,683
Under $51 in 67268$404
$5 to $1013 in 100265$4,388
$10 to $2034 in 100198$27,523
$20 to $4075 in 10057$634,626

Grey: under 30 launches at that price, written as a count. Odds compare best within one price.

Best tag pairs inside, at any price, West-facing view

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11 18 in 100 earned $100k+, from 870 launches 18 in 100154 hits $2,831 not computed 870 none Pin Building
12 17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 246 launches 17 in 10043 hits $2,630 not computed 246 none Pin Colony Sim
13 17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 121 launches 17 in 10021 hits $4,855 not computed 121 Audience Pin FMV
14 17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 112 launches 17 in 10019 hits $5,153 not computed 112 none Pin Mechs
15 17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 149 launches 17 in 10025 hits $1,778 not computed 149 none Pin Music
16 17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 36 launches 17 in 1006 hits $1,415 not computed 36 Small Pin Bikes
17 16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 73 launches 16 in 10012 hits $5,464 not computed 73 none Pin Trains
18 16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 49 launches 16 in 1008 hits $4,451 not computed 49 Small Pin Naval
19 16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 877 launches 16 in 100142 hits $2,185 not computed 877 none Pin Open World
20 16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 31 launches 16 in 1005 hits $4,209 not computed 31 Small Pin Cold War
21 16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 710 launches 16 in 100114 hits $2,448 not computed 710 none Pin Crafting
22 16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 88 launches 16 in 10014 hits $2,428 not computed 88 1-hit Pin Co-op Campaign
23 16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 51 launches 16 in 1008 hits $4,010 not computed 51 none Pin Horses
24 15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 1,251 launches 15 in 100192 hits $3,638 not computed 1,251 none Pin Management
25 15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 512 launches 15 in 10078 hits $2,225 not computed 512 Audience Pin City Builder
Show 25 moreShowing 25 of 264 genres
green beats the base ratecoral below it bar: the chance; amber tick: the base rate1-hit one game holds over half the moneySmall under 50 launches in this viewAudience reads differently for Western players

Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.

Releases

Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.