Best niches
All pricesPairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewTicker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Genres 1 Oct
Of 157 genres with 100+ launches at any price, Last 18 months, 83 beat the 1 in 16 base rate. Price moves the odds most: 1 in 192 under $5, 42 in 100 at $20 to $40.83 of 157 genres beat the 1 in 16 base rate.83 beat the base rate.
Cohort median $606
Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.
Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 1 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.
Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewThe Last 18 months lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.
157 of 266 genres have 100+ launches at any price, Last 18 months. Sorted by chance of $100k+, highest first.
| Rank# | Genre | Chance of $100k+ | Typical year | Top 1 in 10 | Launches | Markers | Pin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games at any price, Last 18 monthsthe base rate: the row to beat | 1 in 161,804 of 29,637 | $606 | not computed | 29,637 | |||
| 1 | FMV25 in 100 earned $100k+, from 114 launches | 25 in 10028 hits | $15,865 | not computed | 114 | Audience | Pin FMV |
| 2 | Base Building21 in 100 earned $100k+, from 326 launches | 21 in 10067 hits | $4,209 | not computed | 326 | none | Pin Base Building |
| 3 | Co-op18 in 100 earned $100k+, from 428 launches | 18 in 10079 hits | $3,641 | not computed | 428 | none | Pin Co-op |
| 4 | Online Co-Op17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 439 launches | 17 in 10073 hits | $3,641 | not computed | 439 | none | Pin Online Co-Op |
| 5 | Building16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 482 launches | 16 in 10076 hits | $2,790 | not computed | 482 | none | Pin Building |
| 6 | Fishing15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 100 launches | 15 in 10015 hits | $1,819 | not computed | 100 | Audience | Pin Fishing |
| 7 | Open World15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 474 launches | 15 in 10071 hits | $1,943 | not computed | 474 | none | Pin Open World |
| 8 | Crafting14 in 100 earned $100k+, from 433 launches | 14 in 10062 hits | $2,023 | not computed | 433 | none | Pin Crafting |
| 9 | Military14 in 100 earned $100k+, from 163 launches | 14 in 10023 hits | $1,294 | not computed | 163 | none | Pin Military |
| 10 | Colony Sim13 in 100 earned $100k+, from 141 launches | 13 in 10019 hits | $2,186 | not computed | 141 | none | Pin Colony Sim |
| 11 | Cinematic13 in 100 earned $100k+, from 292 launches | 13 in 10039 hits | $1,274 | not computed | 292 | Audience | Pin Cinematic |
| 12 | City Builder13 in 100 earned $100k+, from 278 launches | 13 in 10037 hits | $1,840 | not computed | 278 | Audience | Pin City Builder |
| 13 | Sandbox13 in 100 earned $100k+, from 822 launches | 13 in 100109 hits | $1,618 | not computed | 822 | none | Pin Sandbox |
| 14 | Management13 in 100 earned $100k+, from 799 launches | 13 in 100101 hits | $2,832 | not computed | 799 | none | Pin Management |
| 15 | Metroidvania13 in 100 earned $100k+, from 232 launches | 13 in 10029 hits | $2,901 | not computed | 232 | 1-hit | Pin Metroidvania |
| 16 | Gambling13 in 100 earned $100k+, from 104 launches | 13 in 10013 hits | $909 | not computed | 104 | none | Pin Gambling |
| 17 | Inventory Management12 in 100 earned $100k+, from 170 launches | 12 in 10021 hits | $2,225 | not computed | 170 | none | Pin Inventory Management |
| 18 | War12 in 100 earned $100k+, from 170 launches | 12 in 10021 hits | $1,415 | not computed | 170 | none | Pin War |
| 19 | Economy12 in 100 earned $100k+, from 424 launches | 12 in 10052 hits | $2,428 | not computed | 424 | none | Pin Economy |
| 20 | Roguelike Deckbuilder12 in 100 earned $100k+, from 188 launches | 12 in 10023 hits | $8,699 | not computed | 188 | 1-hit | Pin Roguelike Deckbuilder |
| 21 | Capitalism12 in 100 earned $100k+, from 201 launches | 12 in 10024 hits | $1,920 | not computed | 201 | none | Pin Capitalism |
| 22 | Shop Keeper12 in 100 earned $100k+, from 151 launches | 12 in 10018 hits | $2,369 | not computed | 151 | none | Pin Shop Keeper |
| 23 | Resource Management12 in 100 earned $100k+, from 486 launches | 12 in 10057 hits | $2,103 | not computed | 486 | none | Pin Resource Management |
| 24 | Cozy12 in 100 earned $100k+, from 431 launches | 12 in 10050 hits | $1,942 | not computed | 431 | none | Pin Cozy |
| 25 | Mining11 in 100 earned $100k+, from 123 launches | 11 in 10014 hits | $1,314 | not computed | 123 | none | Pin Mining |
| 26 | Life Sim11 in 100 earned $100k+, from 609 launches | 11 in 10069 hits | $1,920 | not computed | 609 | none | Pin Life Sim |
| 27 | Investigation11 in 100 earned $100k+, from 263 launches | 11 in 10029 hits | $1,133 | not computed | 263 | none | Pin Investigation |
| 28 | Crime11 in 100 earned $100k+, from 129 launches | 11 in 10014 hits | $1,214 | not computed | 129 | 1-hit | Pin Crime |
| 29 | Character Customization11 in 100 earned $100k+, from 459 launches | 11 in 10049 hits | $1,211 | not computed | 459 | none | Pin Character Customization |
| 30 | Souls-like11 in 100 earned $100k+, from 244 launches | 11 in 10026 hits | $1,011 | not computed | 244 | none | Pin Souls-like |
| 31 | RTS10 in 100 earned $100k+, from 277 launches | 10 in 10029 hits | $787 | not computed | 277 | Audience | Pin RTS |
| 32 | Tactical10 in 100 earned $100k+, from 273 launches | 10 in 10028 hits | $809 | not computed | 273 | none | Pin Tactical |
| 33 | Immersive Sim1 in 10 earned $100k+, from 864 launches | 1 in 1086 hits | $1,274 | not computed | 864 | none | Pin Immersive Sim |
| 34 | Survival1 in 10 earned $100k+, from 597 launches | 1 in 1059 hits | $1,002 | not computed | 597 | none | Pin Survival |
| 35 | Detective1 in 10 earned $100k+, from 308 launches | 1 in 1030 hits | $1,445 | not computed | 308 | none | Pin Detective |
| 36 | Noir1 in 10 earned $100k+, from 104 launches | 1 in 1010 hits | $1,618 | not computed | 104 | none | Pin Noir |
| 37 | Dark Fantasy1 in 11 earned $100k+, from 392 launches | 1 in 1137 hits | $809 | not computed | 392 | 1-hit | Pin Dark Fantasy |
| 38 | Automation1 in 11 earned $100k+, from 266 launches | 1 in 1125 hits | $1,618 | not computed | 266 | 1-hit | Pin Automation |
| 39 | Driving1 in 11 earned $100k+, from 249 launches | 1 in 1123 hits | $809 | not computed | 249 | none | Pin Driving |
| 40 | Medieval1 in 11 earned $100k+, from 403 launches | 1 in 1136 hits | $607 | not computed | 403 | none | Pin Medieval |
| 41 | Dark Humor1 in 11 earned $100k+, from 247 launches | 1 in 1122 hits | $978 | not computed | 247 | none | Pin Dark Humor |
| 42 | Farming Sim1 in 11 earned $100k+, from 229 launches | 1 in 1120 hits | $1,131 | not computed | 229 | Audience | Pin Farming Sim |
| 43 | Action RTS1 in 12 earned $100k+, from 117 launches | 1 in 1210 hits | $606 | not computed | 117 | 1-hit | Pin Action RTS |
| 44 | FPS1 in 12 earned $100k+, from 790 launches | 1 in 1267 hits | $606 | not computed | 790 | none | Pin FPS |
| 45 | Dating Sim1 in 12 earned $100k+, from 348 launches | 1 in 1229 hits | $1,698 | not computed | 348 | Audience | Pin Dating Sim |
| 46 | Turn-Based Combat1 in 12 earned $100k+, from 388 launches | 1 in 1232 hits | $1,335 | not computed | 388 | none | Pin Turn-Based Combat |
| 47 | Deckbuilding1 in 12 earned $100k+, from 450 launches | 1 in 1237 hits | $2,104 | not computed | 450 | 1-hit | Pin Deckbuilding |
| 48 | Dungeon Crawler1 in 12 earned $100k+, from 526 launches | 1 in 1243 hits | $809 | not computed | 526 | Audience | Pin Dungeon Crawler |
| 49 | Hack and Slash1 in 12 earned $100k+, from 465 launches | 1 in 1238 hits | $1,010 | not computed | 465 | none | Pin Hack and Slash |
| 50 | Looter Shooter1 in 12 earned $100k+, from 124 launches | 1 in 1210 hits | $606 | not computed | 124 | Audience | Pin Looter Shooter |
| 51 | Card Battler1 in 13 earned $100k+, from 392 launches | 1 in 1331 hits | $1,113 | not computed | 392 | 1-hitAudience | Pin Card Battler |
| 52 | Post-apocalyptic1 in 13 earned $100k+, from 291 launches | 1 in 1323 hits | $846 | not computed | 291 | none | Pin Post-apocalyptic |
| 53 | Creature Collector1 in 13 earned $100k+, from 329 launches | 1 in 1326 hits | $1,290 | not computed | 329 | none | Pin Creature Collector |
| 54 | Nature1 in 13 earned $100k+, from 343 launches | 1 in 1327 hits | $728 | not computed | 343 | none | Pin Nature |
| 55 | Automobile Sim1 in 13 earned $100k+, from 168 launches | 1 in 1313 hits | $623 | not computed | 168 | Audience | Pin Automobile Sim |
| 56 | Zombies1 in 13 earned $100k+, from 251 launches | 1 in 1319 hits | $685 | not computed | 251 | Audience | Pin Zombies |
| 57 | Stealth1 in 13 earned $100k+, from 225 launches | 1 in 1317 hits | $688 | not computed | 225 | 1-hit | Pin Stealth |
| 58 | Tactical RPG1 in 13 earned $100k+, from 252 launches | 1 in 1319 hits | $1,214 | not computed | 252 | none | Pin Tactical RPG |
| 59 | Wholesome1 in 13 earned $100k+, from 199 launches | 1 in 1315 hits | $1,314 | not computed | 199 | none | Pin Wholesome |
| 60 | Robots1 in 13 earned $100k+, from 134 launches | 1 in 1310 hits | $303 | not computed | 134 | 1-hitAudience | Pin Robots |
| 61 | Beat 'em up1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 216 launches | 1 in 1416 hits | $405 | not computed | 216 | none | Pin Beat 'em up |
| 62 | Auto Battler1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 271 launches | 1 in 1420 hits | $1,112 | not computed | 271 | none | Pin Auto Battler |
| 63 | Party-Based RPG1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 258 launches | 1 in 1419 hits | $728 | not computed | 258 | Audience | Pin Party-Based RPG |
| 64 | Simulation1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 3,070 launches | 1 in 14225 hits | $971 | not computed | 3,070 | none | Pin Simulation |
| 65 | Wargame1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 234 launches | 1 in 1417 hits | $808 | not computed | 234 | none | Pin Wargame |
| 66 | RPG1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 2,257 launches | 1 in 14162 hits | $607 | not computed | 2,257 | none | Pin RPG |
| 67 | Roguelite1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 1,402 launches | 1 in 1499 hits | $909 | not computed | 1,402 | none | Pin Roguelite |
| 68 | Spectacle fighter1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 100 launches | 1 in 147 hits | $810 | not computed | 100 | none | Pin Spectacle fighter |
| 69 | Grand Strategy1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 130 launches | 1 in 149 hits | $2,182 | not computed | 130 | 1-hit | Pin Grand Strategy |
| 70 | JRPG1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 333 launches | 1 in 1423 hits | $1,617 | not computed | 333 | none | Pin JRPG |
| 71 | Action RPG1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 696 launches | 1 in 1548 hits | $425 | not computed | 696 | none | Pin Action RPG |
| 72 | VR1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 249 launches | 1 in 1517 hits | $809 | not computed | 249 | none | Pin VR |
| 73 | Strategy RPG1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 339 launches | 1 in 1523 hits | $607 | not computed | 339 | none | Pin Strategy RPG |
| 74 | Interactive Fiction1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 817 launches | 1 in 1555 hits | $787 | not computed | 817 | none | Pin Interactive Fiction |
| 75 | Alternate History1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 106 launches | 1 in 157 hits | $607 | not computed | 106 | Audience | Pin Alternate History |
Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.