Genres

Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.

Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 1 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.

Best niches

All prices

Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch

Incremental + Resource Managementabout 8.3 times expected at its prices14 in 100

1Incremental + Resource Management14 in 100114 launches 2Idler + Resource Management13 in 100119 launches 3Incremental + Management11 in 100157 launches 4Incremental + Pixel Graphics1 in13214 launches 5Idler + Pixel Graphics1 in12262 launches

Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.

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Best nichesFree until launchClick to unlockTag pairs that beat the odds

The genre list

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 16 hit $100k+Under $51 in 200 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 26 hit $100k+$10 to $2019 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4042 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, 29,637 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Last 18 months

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

Only launches from the last 18 months. Lenses are computed across all prices only so far, so a lens reads All prices.

Sample 100+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 Last 18 months 100+ launches Reset

The Last 18 months lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.

Best odds at my priceChance of $100k+, read within one price band.Opens $10 to $20, Standard lens.Steady marketsHolds in every lens and no single game owns it.Loads the 30+ launches view.Biggest typical yearWhat the middle launch earned, highest first.Loads the 30+ launches view.Biggest upsideWhat the top tenth earned at least.Loads the 30+ launches view.Proven at scale100+ launches and above the base rate.Now: FMV, 25 in 100. 83 match.Busiest marketsMost launches first: where the competition is.Loads the 30+ launches view.

Hide one-hit markets19 out Hide small samples0 out

157 of 266 genres have 100+ launches at any price, Last 18 months. Sorted by chance of $100k+, highest first.

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Genres at any price, Last 18 months, sorted by chance of $100k+. The first row is the base rate.
Rank#	Genre	Chance of $100k+	Typical year	Top 1 in 10	Launches	Markers	Pin
	All games at any price, Last 18 monthsthe base rate: the row to beat	1 in 161,804 of 29,637	$606	not computed	29,637
1	FMV25 in 100 earned $100k+, from 114 launches	25 in 10028 hits	$15,865	not computed	114	Audience	Pin FMV
2	Base Building21 in 100 earned $100k+, from 326 launches	21 in 10067 hits	$4,209	not computed	326	none	Pin Base Building
3	Co-op18 in 100 earned $100k+, from 428 launches	18 in 10079 hits	$3,641	not computed	428	none	Pin Co-op
4	Online Co-Op17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 439 launches	17 in 10073 hits	$3,641	not computed	439	none	Pin Online Co-Op
5	Building16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 482 launches	16 in 10076 hits	$2,790	not computed	482	none	Pin Building
6	Fishing15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 100 launches	15 in 10015 hits	$1,819	not computed	100	Audience	Pin Fishing
7	Open World15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 474 launches	15 in 10071 hits	$1,943	not computed	474	none	Pin Open World
8	Crafting14 in 100 earned $100k+, from 433 launches	14 in 10062 hits	$2,023	not computed	433	none	Pin Crafting
9	Military14 in 100 earned $100k+, from 163 launches	14 in 10023 hits	$1,294	not computed	163	none	Pin Military
10	Colony Sim13 in 100 earned $100k+, from 141 launches	13 in 10019 hits	$2,186	not computed	141	none	Pin Colony Sim
11	Cinematic13 in 100 earned $100k+, from 292 launches	13 in 10039 hits	$1,274	not computed	292	Audience	Pin Cinematic
12	City Builder13 in 100 earned $100k+, from 278 launches	13 in 10037 hits	$1,840	not computed	278	Audience	Pin City Builder
13	Sandbox13 in 100 earned $100k+, from 822 launches	13 in 100109 hits	$1,618	not computed	822	none	Pin Sandbox
14	Management13 in 100 earned $100k+, from 799 launches	13 in 100101 hits	$2,832	not computed	799	none	Pin Management
15	Metroidvania13 in 100 earned $100k+, from 232 launches	13 in 10029 hits	$2,901	not computed	232	1-hit	Pin Metroidvania
16	Gambling13 in 100 earned $100k+, from 104 launches	13 in 10013 hits	$909	not computed	104	none	Pin Gambling
17	Inventory Management12 in 100 earned $100k+, from 170 launches	12 in 10021 hits	$2,225	not computed	170	none	Pin Inventory Management
18	War12 in 100 earned $100k+, from 170 launches	12 in 10021 hits	$1,415	not computed	170	none	Pin War
19	Economy12 in 100 earned $100k+, from 424 launches	12 in 10052 hits	$2,428	not computed	424	none	Pin Economy
20	Roguelike Deckbuilder12 in 100 earned $100k+, from 188 launches	12 in 10023 hits	$8,699	not computed	188	1-hit	Pin Roguelike Deckbuilder
21	Capitalism12 in 100 earned $100k+, from 201 launches	12 in 10024 hits	$1,920	not computed	201	none	Pin Capitalism
22	Shop Keeper12 in 100 earned $100k+, from 151 launches	12 in 10018 hits	$2,369	not computed	151	none	Pin Shop Keeper
23	Resource Management12 in 100 earned $100k+, from 486 launches	12 in 10057 hits	$2,103	not computed	486	none	Pin Resource Management
24	Cozy12 in 100 earned $100k+, from 431 launches	12 in 10050 hits	$1,942	not computed	431	none	Pin Cozy
25	Mining11 in 100 earned $100k+, from 123 launches	11 in 10014 hits	$1,314	not computed	123	none	Pin Mining

Show 25 moreShowing 25 of 157 genres

green beats the base ratecoral below it bar: the chance; amber tick: the base rate1-hit one game holds over half the moneySmall under 50 launches in this viewAudience reads differently for Western players

Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.