Genres

Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.

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on 30 Sep 2026

Genres 1 Oct

Of 263 genres with 30+ launches at any price, Without the breakout, 149 beat the 1 in 16 base rate. Price moves the odds most: 1 in 192 under $5, 42 in 100 at $20 to $40.149 of 263 genres beat the 1 in 16 base rate.149 beat the base rate.

Cohort median $606

Genres

Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.

Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 1 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.

Best niches

All prices

Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch

Capitalism + Incrementalabout 13 times expected at its prices14 in 100
1Capitalism + Incremental14 in 10050 launches2Casual + Desktop Companion28 in 10047 launches3Desktop Companion + Idler25 in 10064 launches4Desktop Companion + Relaxing30 in 10043 launches5Comedy + Memes10 in 10049 launches

Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.

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Best nichesFree until launchClick to unlockTag pairs that beat the odds

The genre list

The Without the breakout lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.

Best odds at my priceChance of $100k+, read within one price band.Opens $10 to $20, Standard lens.Steady marketsHolds in every lens and no single game owns it.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 30 in 100. 153 match.Biggest typical yearWhat the middle launch earned, highest first.Now: Extraction Shooter, $68,810 typical. 263 match.Biggest upsideWhat the top tenth earned at least.Not computed for lenses yet.Proven at scale100+ launches and above the base rate.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 30 in 100. 109 match.Busiest marketsMost launches first: where the competition is.Now: Puzzle, 5,738 launches. 263 match.
Hide one-hit markets50 outHide small samples23 out

263 of 266 genres have 30+ launches at any price, Without the breakout. Sorted by chance of $100k+, highest first.

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Genres at any price, Without the breakout, sorted by chance of $100k+. The first row is the base rate.
Rank#GenreChance of $100k+Typical yearTop 1 in 10LaunchesMarkersPin
All games at any price, Without the breakoutthe base rate: the row to beat 1 in 161,804 of 29,637 $606not computed 29,637
1 44 in 100 earned $100k+, from 32 launches 44 in 10014 hits $68,810 not computed 32 1-hitSmall Pin Extraction Shooter
2 33 in 100 earned $100k+, from 30 launches 33 in 10010 hits $15,561 not computed 30 Small Pin Organizing
3 30 in 100 earned $100k+, from 107 launches 30 in 10032 hits $20,964 not computed 107 none Pin Open World Survival Craft
4 22 in 100 earned $100k+, from 72 launches 22 in 10016 hits $7,680 not computed 72 Audience Pin Desktop Companion
5 22 in 100 earned $100k+, from 171 launches 22 in 10037 hits $10,043 not computed 171 Audience Pin FMV
6 21 in 100 earned $100k+, from 34 launches 21 in 1007 hits $2,262 not computed 34 Small Pin Rome
7 20 in 100 earned $100k+, from 35 launches 20 in 1007 hits $5,631 not computed 35 1-hitSmallAudience Pin MMORPG
8 Base Building20 in 100 earned $100k+, from 627 launches 20 in 100124 hits $3,683 not computed 627 none Pin Base Building

20 in 100 earned $100k+, from 627 launches at any price, Without the breakout. That is about 3.2 times the base rate.

Base rate at any price, Without the breakout: 1 in 16 (1,804 of 29,637 launches earned $100k+).

Typical first year $3,683. Top 1 in 10 is not computed for lenses yet.

Lens check, all pricesHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.

No warning markers: no single game holds half the money, the sample is 50+ launches and the audience split is small.

Chance of $100k+ at every price (Standard lens)
PriceChanceLaunchesTypical
All prices20 in 100628$3,683
Under $50 in 100160$202
$5 to $101 in 30179$1,821
$10 to $2029 in 100231$28,409
$20 to $4088 in 10058$661,404

Grey: under 30 launches at that price, written as a count. Odds compare best within one price.

Best tag pairs inside, at any price, Without the breakout

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9 19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 794 launches 19 in 100152 hits $4,451 not computed 794 none Pin Online Co-Op
10 19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 69 launches 19 in 10013 hits $3,275 not computed 69 none Pin World War II
11 19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 787 launches 19 in 100147 hits $3,643 not computed 787 none Pin Co-op
12 17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 894 launches 17 in 100156 hits $2,732 not computed 894 none Pin Building
13 17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 250 launches 17 in 10043 hits $2,689 not computed 250 none Pin Colony Sim
14 16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 925 launches 16 in 100150 hits $2,062 not computed 925 none Pin Open World
15 16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 150 launches 16 in 10024 hits $1,699 not computed 150 none Pin Music
16 16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 114 launches 16 in 10018 hits $4,858 not computed 114 none Pin Mechs
17 16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 1,288 launches 16 in 100201 hits $3,638 not computed 1,288 none Pin Management
18 15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 735 launches 15 in 100113 hits $2,428 not computed 735 none Pin Crafting
19 15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 73 launches 15 in 10011 hits $4,973 not computed 73 none Pin Trains
20 15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 1,393 launches 15 in 100209 hits $1,841 not computed 1,393 none Pin Sandbox
21 15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 87 launches 15 in 10013 hits $2,428 not computed 87 1-hit Pin Co-op Campaign
22 15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 540 launches 15 in 10080 hits $1,982 not computed 540 Audience Pin City Builder
23 14 in 100 earned $100k+, from 641 launches 14 in 10092 hits $3,459 not computed 641 none Pin Economy
24 14 in 100 earned $100k+, from 419 launches 14 in 10060 hits $2,893 not computed 419 1-hit Pin Metroidvania
25 14 in 100 earned $100k+, from 140 launches 14 in 10020 hits $7,278 not computed 140 1-hit Pin Bullet Heaven
Show 25 moreShowing 25 of 263 genres
green beats the base ratecoral below it bar: the chance; amber tick: the base rate1-hit one game holds over half the moneySmall under 50 launches in this viewAudience reads differently for Western players

Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.

Releases

Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.