Genres

Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.

Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 1 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.

Best niches

All prices

Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch

Capitalism + Incrementalabout 13 times expected at its prices14 in 100

1Capitalism + Incremental14 in 10050 launches 2Casual + Desktop Companion28 in 10047 launches 3Desktop Companion + Idler25 in 10064 launches 4Desktop Companion + Relaxing30 in 10043 launches 5Comedy + Memes10 in 10049 launches

Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.

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Best nichesFree until launchClick to unlockTag pairs that beat the odds

The genre list

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 16 hit $100k+Under $51 in 200 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 26 hit $100k+$10 to $2019 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4042 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, 29,637 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Without the breakout

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

Drops the single biggest earner. Lenses are computed across all prices only so far, so a lens reads All prices.

Sample 30+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 Without the breakout 30+ launches Reset

The Without the breakout lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.

Best odds at my priceChance of $100k+, read within one price band.Opens $10 to $20, Standard lens.Steady marketsHolds in every lens and no single game owns it.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 30 in 100. 153 match.Biggest typical yearWhat the middle launch earned, highest first.Now: Extraction Shooter, $68,810 typical. 263 match.Biggest upsideWhat the top tenth earned at least.Not computed for lenses yet.Proven at scale100+ launches and above the base rate.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 30 in 100. 109 match.Busiest marketsMost launches first: where the competition is.Now: Puzzle, 5,738 launches. 263 match.

Hide one-hit markets50 out Hide small samples23 out

263 of 266 genres have 30+ launches at any price, Without the breakout. Sorted by chance of $100k+, highest first.

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Genres at any price, Without the breakout, sorted by chance of $100k+. The first row is the base rate.
Rank#	Genre	Chance of $100k+	Typical year	Top 1 in 10	Launches	Markers	Pin
	All games at any price, Without the breakoutthe base rate: the row to beat	1 in 161,804 of 29,637	$606	not computed	29,637
1	Extraction Shooter44 in 100 earned $100k+, from 32 launches	44 in 10014 hits	$68,810	not computed	32	1-hitSmall	Pin Extraction Shooter
2	Organizing33 in 100 earned $100k+, from 30 launches	33 in 10010 hits	$15,561	not computed	30	Small	Pin Organizing
3	Open World Survival Craft30 in 100 earned $100k+, from 107 launches	30 in 10032 hits	$20,964	not computed	107	none	Pin Open World Survival Craft
4	Desktop Companion22 in 100 earned $100k+, from 72 launches	22 in 10016 hits	$7,680	not computed	72	Audience	Pin Desktop Companion
5	FMV22 in 100 earned $100k+, from 171 launches	22 in 10037 hits	$10,043	not computed	171	Audience	Pin FMV
6	Rome21 in 100 earned $100k+, from 34 launches	21 in 1007 hits	$2,262	not computed	34	Small	Pin Rome
7	MMORPG20 in 100 earned $100k+, from 35 launches	20 in 1007 hits	$5,631	not computed	35	1-hitSmallAudience	Pin MMORPG
8	Base Building20 in 100 earned $100k+, from 627 launches	20 in 100124 hits	$3,683	not computed	627	none	Pin Base Building
9	Online Co-Op19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 794 launches	19 in 100152 hits	$4,451	not computed	794	none	Pin Online Co-Op
10	World War II19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 69 launches	19 in 10013 hits	$3,275	not computed	69	none	Pin World War II
11	Co-op19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 787 launches	19 in 100147 hits	$3,643	not computed	787	none	Pin Co-op
12	Building17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 894 launches	17 in 100156 hits	$2,732	not computed	894	none	Pin Building
13	Colony Sim17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 250 launches	17 in 10043 hits	$2,689	not computed	250	none	Pin Colony Sim
14	Open World16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 925 launches	16 in 100150 hits	$2,062	not computed	925	none	Pin Open World
15	Music16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 150 launches	16 in 10024 hits	$1,699	not computed	150	none	Pin Music
16	Mechs16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 114 launches	16 in 10018 hits	$4,858	not computed	114	none	Pin Mechs
17	Management16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 1,288 launches	16 in 100201 hits	$3,638	not computed	1,288	none	Pin Management
18	Crafting15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 735 launches	15 in 100113 hits	$2,428	not computed	735	none	Pin Crafting
19	Trains15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 73 launches	15 in 10011 hits	$4,973	not computed	73	none	Pin Trains
20	Sandbox15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 1,393 launches	15 in 100209 hits	$1,841	not computed	1,393	none	Pin Sandbox
21	Co-op Campaign15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 87 launches	15 in 10013 hits	$2,428	not computed	87	1-hit	Pin Co-op Campaign
22	City Builder15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 540 launches	15 in 10080 hits	$1,982	not computed	540	Audience	Pin City Builder
23	Economy14 in 100 earned $100k+, from 641 launches	14 in 10092 hits	$3,459	not computed	641	none	Pin Economy
24	Metroidvania14 in 100 earned $100k+, from 419 launches	14 in 10060 hits	$2,893	not computed	419	1-hit	Pin Metroidvania
25	Bullet Heaven14 in 100 earned $100k+, from 140 launches	14 in 10020 hits	$7,278	not computed	140	1-hit	Pin Bullet Heaven

Show 25 moreShowing 25 of 263 genres

green beats the base ratecoral below it bar: the chance; amber tick: the base rate1-hit one game holds over half the moneySmall under 50 launches in this viewAudience reads differently for Western players

Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.