Genres

Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.

Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 1 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.

Best niches

All prices

Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch

Incremental + Resource Managementabout 8.3 times expected at its prices14 in 100

1Incremental + Resource Management14 in 100114 launches 2Idler + Resource Management13 in 100119 launches 3Incremental + Management11 in 100157 launches 4Incremental + Pixel Graphics1 in13214 launches 5Idler + Pixel Graphics1 in12262 launches

Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.

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Best nichesFree until launchClick to unlockTag pairs that beat the odds

The genre list

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 16 hit $100k+Under $51 in 200 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 26 hit $100k+$10 to $2019 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4042 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, 29,637 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Last 18 months

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

Only launches from the last 18 months. Lenses are computed across all prices only so far, so a lens reads All prices.

Sample 100+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 Last 18 months 100+ launches Reset

The Last 18 months lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.

Best odds at my priceChance of $100k+, read within one price band.Opens $10 to $20, Standard lens.Steady marketsHolds in every lens and no single game owns it.Loads the 30+ launches view.Biggest typical yearWhat the middle launch earned, highest first.Loads the 30+ launches view.Biggest upsideWhat the top tenth earned at least.Loads the 30+ launches view.Proven at scale100+ launches and above the base rate.Now: FMV, 25 in 100. 83 match.Busiest marketsMost launches first: where the competition is.Loads the 30+ launches view.

Hide one-hit markets19 out Hide small samples0 out

157 of 266 genres have 100+ launches at any price, Last 18 months. Sorted by chance of $100k+, lowest first.

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Genres at any price, Last 18 months, sorted by chance of $100k+. The first row is the base rate.
Rank#	Genre	Chance of $100k+	Typical year	Top 1 in 10	Launches	Markers	Pin
	All games at any price, Last 18 monthsthe base rate: the row to beat	1 in 161,804 of 29,637	$606	not computed	29,637
1	Sokoban1 in 127 earned $100k+, from 127 launches	1 in 1271 hit	$400	not computed	127	Audience	Pin Sokoban
2	Solitaire1 in 113 earned $100k+, from 113 launches	1 in 1131 hit	$202	not computed	113	1-hitAudience	Pin Solitaire
3	Word Game1 in 84 earned $100k+, from 253 launches	1 in 843 hits	$421	not computed	253	Audience	Pin Word Game
4	Precision Platformer1 in 73 earned $100k+, from 513 launches	1 in 737 hits	$242	not computed	513	none	Pin Precision Platformer
5	Match 31 in 73 earned $100k+, from 146 launches	1 in 732 hits	$100	not computed	146	1-hit	Pin Match 3
6	Score Attack1 in 71 earned $100k+, from 353 launches	1 in 715 hits	$241	not computed	353	none	Pin Score Attack
7	Text-Based1 in 69 earned $100k+, from 411 launches	1 in 696 hits	$484	not computed	411	Audience	Pin Text-Based
8	Runner1 in 59 earned $100k+, from 296 launches	1 in 595 hits	$121	not computed	296	1-hit	Pin Runner
9	Arena Shooter1 in 57 earned $100k+, from 284 launches	1 in 575 hits	$242	not computed	284	Audience	Pin Arena Shooter
10	Hidden Object1 in 55 earned $100k+, from 937 launches	1 in 5517 hits	$424	not computed	937	none	Pin Hidden Object
11	Aliens1 in 51 earned $100k+, from 153 launches	1 in 513 hits	$162	not computed	153	none	Pin Aliens
12	3D Fighter1 in 49 earned $100k+, from 195 launches	1 in 494 hits	$202	not computed	195	none	Pin 3D Fighter
13	Grid-Based Movement1 in 48 earned $100k+, from 145 launches	1 in 483 hits	$405	not computed	145	none	Pin Grid-Based Movement
14	2D Platformer1 in 43 earned $100k+, from 1,430 launches	1 in 4333 hits	$201	not computed	1,430	none	Pin 2D Platformer
15	Puzzle Platformer1 in 42 earned $100k+, from 637 launches	1 in 4215 hits	$242	not computed	637	Audience	Pin Puzzle Platformer
16	Shoot 'Em Up1 in 40 earned $100k+, from 485 launches	1 in 4012 hits	$202	not computed	485	none	Pin Shoot 'Em Up
17	Logic1 in 40 earned $100k+, from 524 launches	1 in 4013 hits	$242	not computed	524	none	Pin Logic
18	Arcade1 in 39 earned $100k+, from 2,226 launches	1 in 3957 hits	$242	not computed	2,226	none	Pin Arcade
19	2D Fighter1 in 39 earned $100k+, from 271 launches	1 in 397 hits	$61	not computed	271	Audience	Pin 2D Fighter
20	Dystopian 1 in 37 earned $100k+, from 111 launches	1 in 373 hits	$485	not computed	111	none	Pin Dystopian
21	Tabletop1 in 36 earned $100k+, from 326 launches	1 in 369 hits	$242	not computed	326	none	Pin Tabletop
22	Space Sim1 in 35 earned $100k+, from 141 launches	1 in 354 hits	$323	not computed	141	Audience	Pin Space Sim
23	Mystery Dungeon1 in 35 earned $100k+, from 139 launches	1 in 354 hits	$303	not computed	139	Audience	Pin Mystery Dungeon
24	Perma Death1 in 35 earned $100k+, from 242 launches	1 in 357 hits	$526	not computed	242	none	Pin Perma Death
25	Comic Book1 in 34 earned $100k+, from 171 launches	1 in 345 hits	$405	not computed	171	none	Pin Comic Book

Show 25 moreShowing 25 of 157 genres

green beats the base ratecoral below it bar: the chance; amber tick: the base rate1-hit one game holds over half the moneySmall under 50 launches in this viewAudience reads differently for Western players

Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.