Best niches
$10 to $20Pairs that beat the oddsFree until launch
No pair qualifiesnone with 30+ launches here
Open free previewBest nichesFree until launchClick to unlockWhich pairs beat the odds
GMD Gold: free until launch
Free shows the odds. Gold shows where they break your way.
Free pages give every genre's plain odds. Gold names the tag pairs that beat them at your price, marks the ones that may be luck, and lists who earned the most. Everything gold is free until launch.
Showing Idler at $10 to $20. Change the genre or price in the bar above.
Inside gold
- Best nichesthe pairs that beat the odds at your price
- Spotlightevery figure for one genre, on one card
- Comparablesthe top lifetime earners here
- Lateralerts, exports and history, with accounts
No price yet. You will see it before anything is charged.
The answer Out of 100 launches at $10 to $20, how many earned $100k+ in their first year?
FreeAll games at $10 to $2019 in 100893 of 4,810 launches
FreeIdler at $10 to $2022 in 10010 of 46 launches
GoldNo Idler pair at $10 to $20noneno pair has 30+ launches here
No Idler pair has 30 or more launches at $10 to $20, so gold has no answer here and says so instead of guessing.
- Typical first yearnoneIdler at $10 to $20: $13,597
- Over the luck line0 of 0Idler pairs with 30+ launches at $10 to $20 that earn $100k+ over twice as often as all games at that price
- Biggest game’s share10%of Idler’s money, all prices
Gold for Idler at $10 to $20Best pairOdds of $100k+Typical first yearOver the luck lineOut of 100 launchesAll gamesIdlerBest pairGMD GoldFree until launchClick to openOut of 100 launchesAll gamesIdlerBest pairWhere the odds break your way
What gold unlocks
For Idler at $10 to $20, the genre and price in the bar above. The three gold cards are the real ones from the Home, Genre, Niche and Idea check pages: click one to open it with the Vault doors. Free until launch, nothing to pay.
Spotlight
every boardFigures $10 to $20Free until launch
Idlertop game 10%$13,597
Typical$13,597first year
Odds of $100k+22 in 10010 of 46
Launch rank#1of 115
Coming soon2,399on 30 Sep
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewSpotlightFree until launchClick to unlockEvery board, one card
Comparables
lifetimeEstimated lifetime grossFree until launch
Spirit City: Lofi Sessions15,259 reviews, 2024$3.4M
1Spirit City: Lofi Sessions$3.4M2024
2Cast n Chill$2.4M2025
3Scritchy Scratchy$2.1M2026
4Chill with You : Lo-Fi Story$2.1M2025
5Rusty's Retirement$1.7M2024
ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho earned the most here
Later
with accountsNeeds accounts or daily dataLater
Alerts and morefirst daily readings13 Oct
Alertsneeds accounts
Exportsneeds accounts
Historyfrom 30 Sep
Daily datasince 30 Sep
Every lensopen now
Free until launch one click opens it, for everyone, until launch. Later needs accounts, or the daily data collected since 30 Sep (first readings 13 Oct). Every lens is already open, in the lens check row on every card.
Why it matters: four market figures
Plain odds are true but blunt. These four counts are why gold exists. Each says what it counts and out of what.
- 352of 5,145 tag pairs
earn $100k+ in their first year over twice as often as games at the same prices, and more often than the 1 in 16 for all indie launches.
Base: every tag pair with 40+ launches.
Best niches names them, with the luck line marked.
- 29of 194 big genres
are one-hit markets: one game holds over half the money. In Trading Card Game, TCG Card Shop Simulator holds 93%.
Base: every genre with 100+ launches.
Spotlight flags them before you commit.
- 43of 194 big genres
change typical first-year earnings by over 10% in the West-facing view (games mostly reviewed outside China). FMV: $10,510 becomes $4,855.
Base: every genre with 100+ launches.
The West-facing view shows the market you would sell to.
- 11of 127 big genres
change their odds by over 25% on launches from the last 18 months. Time Management: 1 in 14 becomes 1 in 28.
Base: genres with 100+ launches and 10+ hits in both views.
Last 18 months shows where the market is now.
From 29,637 indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, figures of 1 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first-year revenue of $100k or more. Each bar is the count out of its base, one cell per 2%.
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