Simulation + Choose Your Own Adventure: a typical launch earns $1,213 in its first year

That is the median of 100 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 16 of 209 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 23.2 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 41% on the year before: 172 against 122.

Price: $1,213
Price vs a year earlier: −0.1%
Releases, 12 months: 172
Upcoming games: 400
Games on the store: 1,087

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Simulation + Choose Your Own Adventure on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.13%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.09% to 0.16%	32 ranked of 400 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#1,492 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.	0.72xhits against expected	0.52x to 1.01x	209 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#4,586 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	−7%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−25% to +17%	45 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#1,645 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	−4%review growth against same-age games	−13% to +6%	45 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#987 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 16
Expected: 23.2

Launches: 209
Hit rate: 7.7%4.6% to 10.6%
Expected rate: 11.1%
Against expected: 0.72x0.52x to 1.01x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

209 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $0
Median: $1,215
Top tenth: $57,416

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 172
Prior 12 months: 122

Change: +41%
Against Steam: +3%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

SimulationGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.
Choose Your Own AdventureGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Simulation

pairs with Simulation

Simulation + Shop Keeper$32,26936 launches priced, 330 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Cozy$15,70676 launches priced, 253 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Online Co-Op$11,02868 launches priced, 133 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Multiplayer$8,980122 launches priced, 253 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Base Building$7,38289 launches priced, 173 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Economy$6,979210 launches priced, 540 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Simulation

Related niches

pairs with Choose Your Own Adventure

Choose Your Own Adventure + Romance$3,13658 launches priced, 86 releases in 12 months
Choose Your Own Adventure + Dating Sim$3,11675 launches priced, 85 releases in 12 months
Choose Your Own Adventure + Character Customization$2,97334 launches priced, 26 releases in 12 months
Choose Your Own Adventure + Mystery$2,91649 launches priced, 75 releases in 12 months
Psychological Horror + Choose Your Own Adventure$2,54534 launches priced, 83 releases in 12 months
Story Rich + Choose Your Own Adventure$2,180127 launches priced, 197 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Choose Your Own Adventure

Verdicts

in development

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