Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Niches / Sandbox + Simulation
Sandbox + Simulation
Games tagged both Sandbox and Simulation: 737 indie paid launches, 113 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Sandbox + Simulation priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is level with Sandbox and beats Simulation; priced $10 to $20 it trails Sandbox and beats Simulation.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Sandbox + Simulation trails Sandbox and beats Simulation: 27.4 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 30.7 in 100 for Sandbox and 21.5 in 100 for Simulation.
That is about 1.5 times the 18.6 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 212 games tagged both Sandbox and Simulation priced $10 to $20. 27.4 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 34.7 for Sandbox-only games and 19.9 for Simulation-only games, so the mix trails Sandbox alone and beats Simulation alone.
Both: 212 games priced $10 to $20; 27.4 in 100 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $26,105.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 212 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Sandbox + Simulation holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view728 of 737 launches | Without the breakout736 of 737 launches | Last 18 months441 of 737 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 737113 hits | 728111 hits | 736112 hits | 44159 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 15.3 in 100 | 15.2 in 100 | 15.2 in 100 | 13.4 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $2,790top tenth $228,711+ | $2,832 | $2,790 | $2,428 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -0.7%0.1 fewer in 100 | -0.7%0.1 fewer in 100 | -12.4%1.9 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +1.5%$42 more | 0.0%no change | -13.0%$362 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Sandbox and Simulation, 6 to 30 months old: 737 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 9 of 737 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (35.6% of the money): 736 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 441 of 737.
Sandbox holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Sandbox | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,352 of 1,394 launches | Without the breakout1,393 of 1,394 launches | Last 18 months822 of 1,394 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,394210 hits | 1,352198 hits | 1,393209 hits | 822109 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 15.1 in 100 | 14.6 in 100 | 15.0 in 100 | 13.3 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,841top tenth $239,640+ | $1,840 | $1,841 | $1,618 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -3.3%0.5 fewer in 100 | -0.7%0.1 fewer in 100 | -11.9%1.8 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | -0.1%$1 less | 0.0%no change | -12.1%$223 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Sandbox, 6 to 30 months old: 1,394 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 42 of 1,394 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (22.6% of the money): 1,393 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 822 of 1,394.
Simulation holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Simulation | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view5,023 of 5,285 launches | Without the breakout5,284 of 5,285 launches | Last 18 months3,070 of 5,285 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 5,285435 hits | 5,023411 hits | 5,284434 hits | 3,070225 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 8.2 in 1001 in 12 | 8.2 in 1001 in 12 | 8.2 in 1001 in 12 | 7.3 in 1001 in 14 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $982top tenth $69,988+ | $1,012 | $982 | $971 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | -11.0%0.9 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +3.1%$30 more | 0.0%no change | -1.1%$11 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Simulation, 6 to 30 months old: 5,285 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 262 of 5,285 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Schedule I (15.4% of the money): 5,284 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 3,070 of 5,285.
A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Sandbox + Simulation moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.