Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

RPG + Casual: a typical launch earns $404 in its first year

That is the median of 409 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 32 of 851 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 42.3 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 40% on the year before: 749 against 536.

Price: $404
Price vs a year earlier: +45.4%
Releases, 12 months: 749
Upcoming games: 1,610
Games on the store: 5,544

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

RPG + Casual on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.67%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.42% to 0.93%	80 ranked of 1,610 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#362 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.	0.77xhits against expected	0.60x to 1.00x	851 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#4,292 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	−15%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−25% to −3%	120 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#1,868 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	−12%review growth against same-age games	−19% to −5%	120 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#1,385 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 32
Expected: 42.3

Launches: 851
Hit rate: 3.8%2.2% to 5.1%
Expected rate: 5.0%
Against expected: 0.77x0.60x to 1.00x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

851 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $0
Median: $303
Top tenth: $21,049

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 749
Prior 12 months: 536

Change: +40%
Against Steam: +3%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

RPGGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.
CasualNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with RPG

pairs with RPG

RPG + FMV$25,57938 launches priced, 46 releases in 12 months
RPG + Base Building$17,28632 launches priced, 49 releases in 12 months
RPG + Farming Sim$8,78948 launches priced, 44 releases in 12 months
RPG + Difficult$8,09240 launches priced, 39 releases in 12 months
RPG + Resource Management$8,05030 launches priced, 62 releases in 12 months
RPG + Dating Sim$6,63993 launches priced, 145 releases in 12 months

Every pair with RPG

More with Casual

pairs with Casual

Casual + Job Simulator$8,44230 launches priced, 54 releases in 12 months
Casual + LGBTQ+$4,15442 launches priced, 95 releases in 12 months
Casual + Romance$2,61486 launches priced, 137 releases in 12 months
Casual + Economy$2,204112 launches priced, 302 releases in 12 months
Casual + Online Co-Op$1,970104 launches priced, 272 releases in 12 months
Casual + Capitalism$1,92351 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Casual

Verdicts

in development

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