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Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.

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on 30 Sep 2026

Niches / Realistic + Third Person

Niche

Realistic + Third Person

Games tagged both Realistic and Third Person: 148 indie paid launches, 9 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

  • A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about".
  • Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
  • From 29,637 indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, data of 1 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Showing Realistic + Third Person priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair trails Realistic and is level with Third Person; priced $10 to $20 it trails both its tags.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Realistic + Third Person trails both its tags: 8.6 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 20.1 in 100 for Realistic and 15.0 in 100 for Third Person.

That is 1 in 12, about 0.5 times the 18.6 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.

1STWinner
Tag onemood tagRealistic
20.1in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds20.1 in 100
Typical earnings$10,321
Launches289 / 58 hits
Pair trails by11.5 in 100
3RDThird
This pairRealistic + Third Person
8.6in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds1 in 12
Typical earnings$2,024
Launches35 / 3 hits
Expected18.6 in 100
2NDRunner-up
Tag twomood tagThird Person
15.0in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds15.0 in 100
Typical earnings$3,946
Launches273 / 41 hits
Pair trails by6.4 in 100
All indie launches $10 to $20: 18.6 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $9,226, from 4,810 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Realistic is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page
All prices148 in pairUnder $556 in pair$5 to $1041 in pair$10 to $2035 in pair$20 to $4016 in pair
What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 35 games tagged both Realistic and Third Person priced $10 to $20. 8.6 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 21.7 for Realistic-only games and 16.0 for Third Person-only games, so games with both tags did worse than games with either tag alone.

Both: 35 games priced $10 to $20; 8.6 in 100 earned $100k+ (1 in 12), typical first-year earnings $2,024.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 35 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Firefighting Simulator: Igniteleads this pair32.7%
PairFirefighting Simulator: Ignite32.7%
RealisticGray Zone Warfare21.1%
Third PersonThe Forever Winter13.7%
CheckOne game over half?no
NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.

Open free preview
ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Realistic + Third Person

What this card holds

  • Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
  • One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
  • Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready
Same price banddata ready
Launched within a year of each otherplanned
Earned $100k+planned
The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

  • Firefighting Simulator: Ignite earned 32.7% of the estimated first-year money of the 148 Realistic + Third Person launches.
  • Realistic is led by Gray Zone Warfare, with 21.1% of its money.
  • Third Person is led by The Forever Winter, with 13.7% of its money.
  • No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Realistic + Third Person holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.

Realistic + Third Person through every lens, all prices
This pairBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view146 of 148 launchesWithout the breakout147 of 148 launchesLast 18 months88 of 148 launches
Launches counted1489 hits1469 hits1478 hits885 hits
Earned $100k+6.1 in 1001 in 166.2 in 1001 in 165.4 in 1001 in 195.7 in 1001 in 18
Typical first-year earnings$506top tenth $22,622+$526$486$424
Chance against standardthe yardstick+1.6%0.1 more in 100-11.5%0.7 fewer in 100-6.6%0.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standardthe yardstick+4.0%$20 more-4.0%$20 less-16.2%$82 less
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsHolds
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Realistic and Third Person, 6 to 30 months old: 148 launches.

Launches counted
1489 hits
Earned $100k+
6.1 in 1001 in 16
Typical first-year earnings
$506top tenth $22,622+
Chance against standard
the yardstick
Typical against standard
the yardstick
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 2 of 148 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
1469 hits
Earned $100k+
6.2 in 1001 in 16
Typical first-year earnings
$526
Chance against standard
+1.6%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard
+4.0%$20 more
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Firefighting Simulator: Ignite (32.7% of the money): 147 launches left.

Launches counted
1478 hits
Earned $100k+
5.4 in 1001 in 19
Typical first-year earnings
$486
Chance against standard
-11.5%0.7 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
-4.0%$20 less
Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 88 of 148.

Launches counted
885 hits
Earned $100k+
5.7 in 1001 in 18
Typical first-year earnings
$424
Chance against standard
-6.6%0.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
-16.2%$82 less
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged both Realistic and Third Person, 6 to 30 months old: 148 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 2 of 148 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, Firefighting Simulator: Ignite (32.7% of the money): 147 launches left.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 88 of 148.

Realistic holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.

Realistic through every lens, all prices
RealisticBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view1,604 of 1,632 launchesWithout the breakout1,631 of 1,632 launchesLast 18 months884 of 1,632 launches
Launches counted1,632132 hits1,604132 hits1,631131 hits88471 hits
Earned $100k+8.1 in 1001 in 128.2 in 1001 in 128.0 in 1001 in 138.0 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings$1,131top tenth $53,028+$1,133$1,113$1,052
Chance against standardthe yardstick+1.2%0.1 more in 100-1.2%0.1 fewer in 100-1.2%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standardthe yardstick+0.2%$2 more-1.6%$18 less-7.0%$79 less
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsHolds
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Realistic, 6 to 30 months old: 1,632 launches.

Launches counted
1,632132 hits
Earned $100k+
8.1 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings
$1,131top tenth $53,028+
Chance against standard
the yardstick
Typical against standard
the yardstick
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 28 of 1,632 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
1,604132 hits
Earned $100k+
8.2 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings
$1,133
Chance against standard
+1.2%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard
+0.2%$2 more
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Gray Zone Warfare (21.1% of the money): 1,631 launches left.

Launches counted
1,631131 hits
Earned $100k+
8.0 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings
$1,113
Chance against standard
-1.2%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
-1.6%$18 less
Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 884 of 1,632.

Launches counted
88471 hits
Earned $100k+
8.0 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings
$1,052
Chance against standard
-1.2%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
-7.0%$79 less
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged Realistic, 6 to 30 months old: 1,632 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 28 of 1,632 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, Gray Zone Warfare (21.1% of the money): 1,631 launches left.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 884 of 1,632.

Third Person holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.

Third Person through every lens, all prices
Third PersonBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view1,564 of 1,628 launchesWithout the breakout1,627 of 1,628 launchesLast 18 months893 of 1,628 launches
Launches counted1,62893 hits1,56491 hits1,62792 hits89348 hits
Earned $100k+5.7 in 1001 in 185.8 in 1001 in 175.7 in 1001 in 185.4 in 1001 in 19
Typical first-year earnings$324top tenth $24,288+$364$324$304
Chance against standardthe yardstick+1.8%0.1 more in 1000.0%no change-5.3%0.3 fewer in 100
Typical against standardthe yardstick+12.3%$40 more0.0%no change-6.2%$20 less
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsHolds
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Third Person, 6 to 30 months old: 1,628 launches.

Launches counted
1,62893 hits
Earned $100k+
5.7 in 1001 in 18
Typical first-year earnings
$324top tenth $24,288+
Chance against standard
the yardstick
Typical against standard
the yardstick
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 64 of 1,628 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
1,56491 hits
Earned $100k+
5.8 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings
$364
Chance against standard
+1.8%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard
+12.3%$40 more
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, The Forever Winter (13.7% of the money): 1,627 launches left.

Launches counted
1,62792 hits
Earned $100k+
5.7 in 1001 in 18
Typical first-year earnings
$324
Chance against standard
0.0%no change
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 893 of 1,628.

Launches counted
89348 hits
Earned $100k+
5.4 in 1001 in 19
Typical first-year earnings
$304
Chance against standard
-5.3%0.3 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
-6.2%$20 less
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged Third Person, 6 to 30 months old: 1,628 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 64 of 1,628 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, The Forever Winter (13.7% of the money): 1,627 launches left.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 893 of 1,628.

A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Realistic + Third Person moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.

Releases

Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.