Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Niches / Realistic + Simulation
Realistic + Simulation
Games tagged both Realistic and Simulation: 627 indie paid launches, 75 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Realistic + Simulation priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats both its tags; priced $10 to $20 it beats Realistic and is level with Simulation.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Realistic + Simulation beats Realistic and is level with Simulation: 21.7 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 20.1 in 100 for Realistic and 21.5 in 100 for Simulation.
That is about 1.2 times the 18.6 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 152 games tagged both Realistic and Simulation priced $10 to $20. 21.7 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 18.2 for Realistic-only games and 21.4 for Simulation-only games, so the mix beats Realistic alone and is level with Simulation alone.
Both: 152 games priced $10 to $20; 21.7 in 100 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $16,392.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 152 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Realistic + Simulation holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view617 of 627 launches | Without the breakout626 of 627 launches | Last 18 months349 of 627 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 62775 hits | 61775 hits | 62674 hits | 34943 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 12.0 in 100 | 12.2 in 100 | 11.8 in 100 | 12.3 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $2,183top tenth $127,520+ | $2,265 | $2,183 | $2,183 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | +1.7%0.2 more in 100 | -1.7%0.2 fewer in 100 | +2.5%0.3 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +3.8%$82 more | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Realistic and Simulation, 6 to 30 months old: 627 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 10 of 627 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Gray Zone Warfare (25.1% of the money): 626 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 349 of 627.
Realistic holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Realistic | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,604 of 1,632 launches | Without the breakout1,631 of 1,632 launches | Last 18 months884 of 1,632 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,632132 hits | 1,604132 hits | 1,631131 hits | 88471 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 8.1 in 1001 in 12 | 8.2 in 1001 in 12 | 8.0 in 1001 in 13 | 8.0 in 1001 in 13 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,131top tenth $53,028+ | $1,133 | $1,113 | $1,052 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | +1.2%0.1 more in 100 | -1.2%0.1 fewer in 100 | -1.2%0.1 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +0.2%$2 more | -1.6%$18 less | -7.0%$79 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Realistic, 6 to 30 months old: 1,632 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 28 of 1,632 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Gray Zone Warfare (21.1% of the money): 1,631 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 884 of 1,632.
Simulation holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Simulation | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view5,023 of 5,285 launches | Without the breakout5,284 of 5,285 launches | Last 18 months3,070 of 5,285 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 5,285435 hits | 5,023411 hits | 5,284434 hits | 3,070225 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 8.2 in 1001 in 12 | 8.2 in 1001 in 12 | 8.2 in 1001 in 12 | 7.3 in 1001 in 14 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $982top tenth $69,988+ | $1,012 | $982 | $971 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | -11.0%0.9 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +3.1%$30 more | 0.0%no change | -1.1%$11 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Simulation, 6 to 30 months old: 5,285 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 262 of 5,285 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Schedule I (15.4% of the money): 5,284 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 3,070 of 5,285.
A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Realistic + Simulation moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
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