Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Realistic + Sandbox
Games tagged both Realistic and Sandbox: 100 indie paid launches, 16 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Realistic + Sandbox priced $10 to $20.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Realistic + Sandbox beats Realistic and is about level with Sandbox: 27.5 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 17.6 in 100 for Realistic and 29.7 in 100 for Sandbox.
That is about 1.6 times the 17.6 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 40.0 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 40 games tagged both Realistic and Sandbox priced $10 to $20. 27.5 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 15.7 in 100 for Realistic-only games and 30.0 in 100 for Sandbox-only games, so the mix beats Realistic alone and is about level with Sandbox alone.
Both: 40 games priced $10 to $20; 27.5 in 100 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $20,945.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 40 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Realistic + Sandbox holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view99 of 100 launches | Without the breakout99 of 100 launches | Last 18 months30 of 100 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 10016 hits | 9916 hits | 9915 hits | 305 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 16.0 in 100 | 16.2 in 100 | 15.2 in 100 | 16.7 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $4,056top tenth $203,540+ | $4,056 | $3,877 | $7,185 |
| Chance against standard | the base | +1.0%0.2 more in 100 | -5.3%0.8 fewer in 100 | +4.2%0.7 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | 0.0%no change; too few to tell | -4.4%$179 less | +77.1%$3,129 more; too few to tell |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Realistic and Sandbox, 12 to 36 months old: 100 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 1 of 100 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, BMX Streets (15.5% of the money): 99 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 30 of 100.
Realistic holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| Realistic | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,451 of 1,484 launches | Without the breakout1,483 of 1,484 launches | Last 18 months428 of 1,484 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,48499 hits | 1,45199 hits | 1,48398 hits | 42833 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 6.7 in 1001 in 15 | 6.8 in 1001 in 15 | 6.6 in 1001 in 15 | 7.7 in 1001 in 13 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $927top tenth $45,193+ | $940 | $921 | $957 |
| Chance against standard | the base | +2.3%0.2 more in 100 | -0.9%0.1 fewer in 100 | +15.6%1.0 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +1.4%$13 more | -0.6%$6 less | +3.2%$30 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Realistic, 12 to 36 months old: 1,484 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 33 of 1,484 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Gray Zone Warfare (24.8% of the money): 1,483 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 428 of 1,484.
Sandbox is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.
| Sandbox | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,172 of 1,219 launches | Without the breakout1,218 of 1,219 launches | Last 18 months387 of 1,219 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,219193 hits | 1,172181 hits | 1,218192 hits | 38762 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 15.8 in 100 | 15.4 in 100 | 15.8 in 100 | 16.0 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,882top tenth $223,977+ | $1,914 | $1,882 | $2,011 |
| Chance against standard | the base | -2.5%0.4 fewer in 100 | -0.4%0.1 fewer in 100 | +1.2%0.2 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +1.7%$32 more | 0.0%no change | +6.9%$129 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Moves the answer | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Sandbox, 12 to 36 months old: 1,219 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 47 of 1,219 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (22.8% of the money): 1,218 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 387 of 1,219.
A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Realistic + Sandbox moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.