Niche

Open World + Puzzle

Games tagged both Open World and Puzzle: 51 indie paid launches, 6 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,291 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 238 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2020 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,291 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20

Showing Open World + Puzzle priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair trails Open World and beats Puzzle; priced $10 to $20 it is too small to compare with Open World and is too small to compare with Puzzle.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Open World + Puzzle is too small to compare with Open World and is too small to compare with Puzzle: 4 of its 20 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 29.6 in 100 for Open World and 14.3 in 100 for Puzzle.

Small sample: 20 launches, 4 hits.

TIEA tie

Tag oneOpen World

29.6in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds29.6 in 100

Typical earnings$25,972

Launches270 / 80 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pairOpen World + Puzzle

4 of 20launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds4 of 20 launches

$1k+16 of 20 launches

$10k+10 of 20 launches

Launches20 / 4 hits

Expected20.4 in 100

TIETied

Tag twoPuzzle

14.3in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds14.3 in 100

Typical earnings$5,070

Launches684 / 98 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches $10 to $20: 20.4 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $10,978, from 4,304 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices51 in pair Under $512 in pair $5 to $1016 in pair $10 to $2020 in pair$20 to $403: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 20 games tagged both Open World and Puzzle priced $10 to $20. 4 of 20 of them earned $100k+, against 30.4 in 100 for Open World-only games and 14.2 in 100 for Puzzle-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Open World alone and is too small to compare with Puzzle alone.

Both: 20 games priced $10 to $20; 4 of 20 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 16 of 20 launches · $10k+ 10 of 20 launches · $100k+ 4 of 20 launches.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 20 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Snufkin: Melody of Moominvalleyleads this pair31.7%

PairSnufkin: Melody of Moominvalley31.7%

Open WorldPalworld30.4%

PuzzleBlue Prince7.4%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 2 of 3, 1 too few to tell. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Open World + Puzzle

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Snufkin: Melody of Moominvalley earned 31.7% of the estimated first-year money of the 51 Open World + Puzzle launches.
Open World is led by Palworld, with 30.4% of its money.
Puzzle is led by Blue Prince, with 7.4% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Open World + Puzzle holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout; too few to tell in Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Open World + Puzzle through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view49 of 51 launches	Without the breakout50 of 51 launches	Last 18 months19 of 51 launches
Launches counted	516 hits	496 hits	505 hits	192 hits
Earned $100k+	11.8 in 100	12.2 in 100	10.0 in 100	2 of 19too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+	33 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 63 in 100	under 100 launches	under 100 launches	under 100 launches
Chance against standard	the base	+4.1%0.5 more in 100	-15.0%1.8 fewer in 100	-10.5%1.2 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	under 100 launches	under 100 launches	under 100 launches
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Open World and Puzzle, 12 to 36 months old: 51 launches.

Launches counted: 516 hits
Earned $100k+: 11.8 in 100
Chance of $10k+: 33 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 63 in 100
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 2 of 51 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 496 hits
Earned $100k+: 12.2 in 100
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: +4.1%0.5 more in 100
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Snufkin: Melody of Moominvalley (31.7% of the money): 50 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 505 hits
Earned $100k+: 10.0 in 100
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -15.0%1.8 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 19 of 51.

Launches counted: 192 hits
Earned $100k+: 2 of 19too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -10.5%1.2 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Open World and Puzzle, 12 to 36 months old: 51 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 2 of 51 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Snufkin: Melody of Moominvalley (31.7% of the money): 50 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 19 of 51.

Open World holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Open World through every lens, all prices
Open World	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view820 of 862 launches	Without the breakout861 of 862 launches	Last 18 months222 of 862 launches
Launches counted	862162 hits	820155 hits	861161 hits	22241 hits
Earned $100k+	18.8 in 100	18.9 in 100	18.7 in 100	18.5 in 100
Typical first-year earnings	$2,048top tenth $475,199+	$2,107	$2,044	$2,528
Chance against standard	the base	+0.6%0.1 more in 100	-0.5%0.1 fewer in 100	-1.7%0.3 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+2.9%$59 more	-0.2%$4 less	+23.4%$480 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Open World, 12 to 36 months old: 862 launches.

Launches counted: 862162 hits
Earned $100k+: 18.8 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,048top tenth $475,199+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 42 of 862 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 820155 hits
Earned $100k+: 18.9 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,107
Chance against standard: +0.6%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard: +2.9%$59 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Palworld (30.4% of the money): 861 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 861161 hits
Earned $100k+: 18.7 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,044
Chance against standard: -0.5%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -0.2%$4 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 222 of 862.

Launches counted: 22241 hits
Earned $100k+: 18.5 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,528
Chance against standard: -1.7%0.3 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +23.4%$480 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Open World, 12 to 36 months old: 862 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 42 of 862 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Palworld (30.4% of the money): 861 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 222 of 862.

Puzzle holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Puzzle through every lens, all prices
Puzzle	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view5,055 of 5,256 launches	Without the breakout5,255 of 5,256 launches	Last 18 months1,493 of 5,256 launches
Launches counted	5,256185 hits	5,055174 hits	5,255184 hits	1,49359 hits
Earned $100k+	3.5 in 1001 in 28	3.4 in 1001 in 29	3.5 in 1001 in 29	4.0 in 1001 in 25
Typical first-year earnings	$421top tenth $14,242+	$428	$421	$428
Chance against standard	the base	-2.2%0.1 fewer in 100	-0.5%no change	+12.3%0.4 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+1.7%$7 more	0.0%no change	+1.7%$7 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Puzzle, 12 to 36 months old: 5,256 launches.

Launches counted: 5,256185 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.5 in 1001 in 28
Typical first-year earnings: $421top tenth $14,242+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 201 of 5,256 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 5,055174 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.4 in 1001 in 29
Typical first-year earnings: $428
Chance against standard: -2.2%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +1.7%$7 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Blue Prince (7.4% of the money): 5,255 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 5,255184 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.5 in 1001 in 29
Typical first-year earnings: $421
Chance against standard: -0.5%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,493 of 5,256.

Launches counted: 1,49359 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.0 in 1001 in 25
Typical first-year earnings: $428
Chance against standard: +12.3%0.4 more in 100
Typical against standard: +1.7%$7 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Puzzle, 12 to 36 months old: 5,256 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 201 of 5,256 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Blue Prince (7.4% of the money): 5,255 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,493 of 5,256.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Open World + Puzzle moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.