Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Niches / Mystery + Visual Novel
Mystery + Visual Novel
Games tagged both Mystery and Visual Novel: 242 indie paid launches, 28 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Mystery + Visual Novel priced $10 to $20.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Mystery + Visual Novel beats both its tags: 25.8 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 22.7 in 100 for Mystery and 14.6 in 100 for Visual Novel.
That is about 1.4 times the 18.6 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 62 games tagged both Mystery and Visual Novel priced $10 to $20. 25.8 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 21.9 for Mystery-only games and 12.8 for Visual Novel-only games, so games with both tags did better than games with either tag alone.
Both: 62 games priced $10 to $20; 25.8 in 100 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $26,483.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 62 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Mystery + Visual Novel is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer by more than a quarter. It holds in 2 of 3.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view202 of 242 launches | Without the breakout241 of 242 launches | Last 18 months135 of 242 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 24228 hits | 20223 hits | 24127 hits | 13510 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 11.6 in 100 | 11.4 in 100 | 11.2 in 100 | 7.4 in 1001 in 14 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $2,104top tenth $127,532+ | $1,617 | $2,003 | $1,088 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -1.7%0.2 fewer in 100 | -3.4%0.4 fewer in 100 | -36.2%4.2 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | -23.1%$487 less | -4.8%$101 less | -48.3%$1,016 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Mystery and Visual Novel, 6 to 30 months old: 242 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 40 of 242 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Until Then (35.3% of the money): 241 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 135 of 242.
Mystery holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Mystery | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,293 of 1,381 launches | Without the breakout1,380 of 1,381 launches | Last 18 months791 of 1,381 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,381125 hits | 1,293110 hits | 1,380124 hits | 79161 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 9.1 in 1001 in 11 | 8.5 in 1001 in 12 | 9.0 in 1001 in 11 | 7.7 in 1001 in 13 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,052top tenth $74,317+ | $1,013 | $1,052 | $810 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -6.6%0.6 fewer in 100 | -1.1%0.1 fewer in 100 | -15.4%1.4 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | -3.7%$39 less | 0.0%no change | -23.0%$242 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Mystery, 6 to 30 months old: 1,381 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 88 of 1,381 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Blue Prince (12.8% of the money): 1,380 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 791 of 1,381.
Visual Novel is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer by more than a quarter. It holds in 2 of 3.
| Visual Novel | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,823 of 2,114 launches | Without the breakout2,113 of 2,114 launches | Last 18 months1,162 of 2,114 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 2,114130 hits | 1,823100 hits | 2,113129 hits | 1,16263 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 6.1 in 1001 in 16 | 5.5 in 1001 in 18 | 6.1 in 1001 in 16 | 5.4 in 1001 in 19 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,293top tenth $48,802+ | $1,214 | $1,287 | $910 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -9.8%0.6 fewer in 100 | 0.0%no change | -11.5%0.7 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | -6.1%$79 less | -0.5%$6 less | -29.6%$383 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged Visual Novel, 6 to 30 months old: 2,114 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 291 of 2,114 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Until Then (7.5% of the money): 2,113 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,162 of 2,114.
A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Mystery + Visual Novel moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.