Niche

Mystery + Third Person

Games tagged both Mystery and Third Person: 42 indie paid launches, 2 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,280 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price Under $5

All prices1 in 17 hit $100k+Under $51 in 219 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 30 hit $100k+$10 to $2018 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4040 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,280 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

Under $5

Showing Mystery + Third Person priced under $5.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?Under $5

Mystery + Third Person is too small to compare with Mystery and is too small to compare with Third Person: 0 of its 23 launches earned $100k+ priced under $5, against 3 of 541 launches for Mystery and 0 of 777 launches for Third Person.

Small sample: 23 launches, 0 hits.

TIEA tie

Tag onemood tagMystery

3 of 541launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds3 of 541 launches

Typical earnings$313

Launches541 / 3 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pairMystery + Third Person

0 of 23launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds0 of 23 launches

Typical earnings$94

Launches23 / 0 hits

Expected0.5 in 100

TIEA tie

Tag twomood tagThird Person

0 of 777launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds0 of 777 launches

Typical earnings$114

Launches777 / 0 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches under $5: 0.5 in 100 earned $100k+ (1 in 219), typical $169, from 13,780 launches.each block is 0.5 in 100 all indie at under $5Mystery is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 40.0 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices42 in pair Under $523 in pair $5 to $1011 in pair$10 to $206: too few$20 to $402: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 23 games tagged both Mystery and Third Person priced under $5. 0 of 23 of them earned $100k+, against 3 of 518 for Mystery-only games and 0 of 754 for Third Person-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Mystery alone and is too small to compare with Third Person alone.

Both: 23 games priced under $5; 0 of 23 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $94.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 23 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Caravan SandWitchleads this pair47.1%

PairCaravan SandWitch47.1%

MysteryBlue Prince13.8%

Third PersonThe Forever Winter14.7%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 1 of 3, 2 too few to tell. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: too few to tell. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Mystery + Third Person

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Caravan SandWitch earned 47.1% of the estimated first-year money of the 42 Mystery + Third Person launches.
Mystery is led by Blue Prince, with 13.8% of its money.
Third Person is led by The Forever Winter, with 14.7% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Mystery + Third Person holds in Without the breakout; too few to tell in West-facing view and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Mystery + Third Person through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view41 of 42 launches	Without the breakout41 of 42 launches	Last 18 months12 of 42 launches
Launches counted	422 hits	412 hits	411 hits	120 hits
Earned $100k+	2 of 42too few for a rate	2 of 41too few for a rate	1 of 41too few for a rate	0 of 12too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings	$255top tenth $39,815+	$153	$153	$114
Chance against standard	the base	+2.4%0.1 more in 100; too few to tell	-48.8%2.3 fewer in 100	-100.0%4.8 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	-40.0%$102 less; too few to tell	-40.0%$102 less	-55.3%$141 less; too few to tell
Does it hold?	The base view	Too few to tell	Holds	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Mystery and Third Person, 12 to 36 months old: 42 launches.

Launches counted: 422 hits
Earned $100k+: 2 of 42too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $255top tenth $39,815+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewToo few to tell

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 1 of 42 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 412 hits
Earned $100k+: 2 of 41too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $153
Chance against standard: +2.4%0.1 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: -40.0%$102 less; too few to tell

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Caravan SandWitch (47.1% of the money): 41 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 411 hits
Earned $100k+: 1 of 41too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $153
Chance against standard: -48.8%2.3 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -40.0%$102 less

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 12 of 42.

Launches counted: 120 hits
Earned $100k+: 0 of 12too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $114
Chance against standard: -100.0%4.8 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: -55.3%$141 less; too few to tell

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Mystery and Third Person, 12 to 36 months old: 42 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 1 of 42 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Caravan SandWitch (47.1% of the money): 41 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 12 of 42.

Mystery is audience split +1: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would, and 1 more lens too. It holds in Without the breakout.

Mystery through every lens, all prices
Mystery	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view1,110 of 1,186 launches	Without the breakout1,185 of 1,186 launches	Last 18 months366 of 1,186 launches
Launches counted	1,18693 hits	1,11078 hits	1,18592 hits	36631 hits
Earned $100k+	7.8 in 1001 in 13	7.0 in 1001 in 14	7.8 in 1001 in 13	8.5 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings	$1,072top tenth $65,794+	$1,030	$1,065	$669
Chance against standard	the base	-10.4%0.8 fewer in 100	-1.0%0.1 fewer in 100	+8.0%0.6 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-3.9%$42 less	-0.7%$7 less	-37.6%$403 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Mystery, 12 to 36 months old: 1,186 launches.

Launches counted: 1,18693 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.8 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $1,072top tenth $65,794+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 76 of 1,186 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1,11078 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.0 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $1,030
Chance against standard: -10.4%0.8 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -3.9%$42 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Blue Prince (13.8% of the money): 1,185 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1,18592 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.8 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $1,065
Chance against standard: -1.0%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -0.7%$7 less

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 366 of 1,186.

Launches counted: 36631 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.5 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $669
Chance against standard: +8.0%0.6 more in 100
Typical against standard: -37.6%$403 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Mystery, 12 to 36 months old: 1,186 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 76 of 1,186 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Blue Prince (13.8% of the money): 1,185 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 366 of 1,186.

Third Person holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Third Person through every lens, all prices
Third Person	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view1,434 of 1,486 launches	Without the breakout1,485 of 1,486 launches	Last 18 months425 of 1,486 launches
Launches counted	1,48676 hits	1,43475 hits	1,48575 hits	42523 hits
Earned $100k+	5.1 in 1001 in 20	5.2 in 1001 in 19	5.1 in 1001 in 20	5.4 in 1001 in 18
Typical first-year earnings	$287top tenth $20,660+	$304	$287	$287
Chance against standard	the base	+2.3%0.1 more in 100	-1.2%0.1 fewer in 100	+5.8%0.3 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+5.9%$17 more	0.0%no change	0.0%no change
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Third Person, 12 to 36 months old: 1,486 launches.

Launches counted: 1,48676 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.1 in 1001 in 20
Typical first-year earnings: $287top tenth $20,660+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 52 of 1,486 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1,43475 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.2 in 1001 in 19
Typical first-year earnings: $304
Chance against standard: +2.3%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard: +5.9%$17 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, The Forever Winter (14.7% of the money): 1,485 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1,48575 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.1 in 1001 in 20
Typical first-year earnings: $287
Chance against standard: -1.2%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 425 of 1,486.

Launches counted: 42523 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.4 in 1001 in 18
Typical first-year earnings: $287
Chance against standard: +5.8%0.3 more in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Third Person, 12 to 36 months old: 1,486 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 52 of 1,486 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, The Forever Winter (14.7% of the money): 1,485 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 425 of 1,486.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Mystery + Third Person moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.