Niche

Mystery + Surreal

Games tagged both Mystery and Surreal: 58 indie paid launches, 8 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,291 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price Under $5

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 238 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2020 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,291 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

Under $5

Showing Mystery + Surreal priced under $5. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats both its tags; priced under $5 it is too small to compare with Mystery and is too small to compare with Surreal.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?Under $5

Mystery + Surreal is too small to compare with Mystery and is too small to compare with Surreal: 1 of its 30 launches earned $100k+ priced under $5, against 2 of 541 launches for Mystery and 1.5 in 100 for Surreal.

Small sample: 30 launches, 1 hits.

TIEA tie

Tag onemood tagMystery

2 of 541launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds2 of 541 launches

Typical earnings$286

Launches541 / 2 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pairMystery + Surreal

1 of 30launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds1 of 30 launches

$1k+60 in 100

$10k+3 of 30 launches

Launches30 / 1 hits

Expected0.4 in 100

TIEA tie

Tag twomood tagSurreal

1.5in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds1 in 66

Typical earnings$397

Launches330 / 5 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches under $5: 0.4 in 100 earned $100k+ (1 in 238), typical $158, from 13,785 launches.each block is 0.5 in 100 all indie at under $5Mystery is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices58 in pair Under $530 in pair $5 to $1017 in pair$10 to $208: too few$20 to $403: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 30 games tagged both Mystery and Surreal priced under $5. 1 of 30 of them earned $100k+, against 1 of 511 for Mystery-only games and 4 of 300 for Surreal-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Mystery alone and is too small to compare with Surreal alone.

Both: 30 games priced under $5; 1 of 30 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 60 in 100 · $10k+ 3 of 30 launches · $100k+ 1 of 30 launches.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 30 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

DEAD LETTER DEPT.leads this pair24.0%

PairDEAD LETTER DEPT.24.0%

MysteryBlue Prince14.2%

SurrealINDIKA14.1%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 2 of 3, 1 too few to tell. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Mystery + Surreal

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

DEAD LETTER DEPT. earned 24.0% of the estimated first-year money of the 58 Mystery + Surreal launches.
Mystery is led by Blue Prince, with 14.2% of its money.
Surreal is led by INDIKA, with 14.1% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Mystery + Surreal holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout; too few to tell in Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Mystery + Surreal through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view54 of 58 launches	Without the breakout57 of 58 launches	Last 18 months13 of 58 launches
Launches counted	588 hits	548 hits	577 hits	132 hits
Earned $100k+	13.8 in 100	14.8 in 100	12.3 in 100	2 of 13too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+	29 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 72 in 100	under 100 launches	under 100 launches	under 100 launches
Chance against standard	the base	+7.4%1.0 more in 100	-11.0%1.5 fewer in 100	+11.5%1.6 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	under 100 launches	under 100 launches	under 100 launches
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Mystery and Surreal, 12 to 36 months old: 58 launches.

Launches counted: 588 hits
Earned $100k+: 13.8 in 100
Chance of $10k+: 29 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 72 in 100
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 4 of 58 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 548 hits
Earned $100k+: 14.8 in 100
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: +7.4%1.0 more in 100
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, DEAD LETTER DEPT. (24.0% of the money): 57 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 577 hits
Earned $100k+: 12.3 in 100
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -11.0%1.5 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 13 of 58.

Launches counted: 132 hits
Earned $100k+: 2 of 13too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: +11.5%1.6 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Mystery and Surreal, 12 to 36 months old: 58 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 4 of 58 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, DEAD LETTER DEPT. (24.0% of the money): 57 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 13 of 58.

Mystery is audience split +1: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would, and 1 more lens too. It holds in Without the breakout.

Mystery through every lens, all prices
Mystery	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view1,111 of 1,186 launches	Without the breakout1,185 of 1,186 launches	Last 18 months367 of 1,186 launches
Launches counted	1,186108 hits	1,11193 hits	1,185107 hits	36737 hits
Earned $100k+	9.1 in 1001 in 11	8.4 in 1001 in 12	9.0 in 1001 in 11	10.1 in 100
Typical first-year earnings	$1,103top tenth $82,094+	$1,071	$1,095	$632
Chance against standard	the base	-8.1%0.7 fewer in 100	-0.8%0.1 fewer in 100	+10.7%1.0 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-2.9%$32 less	-0.7%$8 less	-42.7%$471 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Mystery, 12 to 36 months old: 1,186 launches.

Launches counted: 1,186108 hits
Earned $100k+: 9.1 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings: $1,103top tenth $82,094+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 75 of 1,186 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1,11193 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.4 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $1,071
Chance against standard: -8.1%0.7 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -2.9%$32 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Blue Prince (14.2% of the money): 1,185 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1,185107 hits
Earned $100k+: 9.0 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings: $1,095
Chance against standard: -0.8%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -0.7%$8 less

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 367 of 1,186.

Launches counted: 36737 hits
Earned $100k+: 10.1 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $632
Chance against standard: +10.7%1.0 more in 100
Typical against standard: -42.7%$471 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Mystery, 12 to 36 months old: 1,186 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 75 of 1,186 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Blue Prince (14.2% of the money): 1,185 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 367 of 1,186.

Surreal holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Surreal through every lens, all prices
Surreal	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view553 of 579 launches	Without the breakout578 of 579 launches	Last 18 months157 of 579 launches
Launches counted	57935 hits	55333 hits	57834 hits	1577 hits
Earned $100k+	6.0 in 1001 in 17	6.0 in 1001 in 17	5.9 in 1001 in 17	4.5 in 1001 in 22
Typical first-year earnings	$1,034top tenth $46,867+	$1,020	$1,034	$1,161
Chance against standard	the base	-1.3%0.1 fewer in 100	-2.7%0.2 fewer in 100	-26.2%1.6 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-1.4%$14 less	0.0%no change	+12.3%$127 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Surreal, 12 to 36 months old: 579 launches.

Launches counted: 57935 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.0 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings: $1,034top tenth $46,867+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 26 of 579 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 55333 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.0 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings: $1,020
Chance against standard: -1.3%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -1.4%$14 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, INDIKA (14.1% of the money): 578 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 57834 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.9 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings: $1,034
Chance against standard: -2.7%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 157 of 579.

Launches counted: 1577 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.5 in 1001 in 22
Typical first-year earnings: $1,161
Chance against standard: -26.2%1.6 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +12.3%$127 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Surreal, 12 to 36 months old: 579 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 26 of 579 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, INDIKA (14.1% of the money): 578 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 157 of 579.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Mystery + Surreal moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.