Comparables
LeadersTop earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.
Open free previewTicker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Niches / Multiple Endings + Nonlinear
Multiple Endings + Nonlinear
Games tagged both Multiple Endings and Nonlinear: 42 indie paid launches, 4 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Multiple Endings + Nonlinear priced under $5. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats both its tags; priced under $5 it trails both its tags.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Multiple Endings + Nonlinear trails both its tags: 0 of its 17 launches earned $100k+ priced under $5, against 1.1 in 100 for Multiple Endings and 1.0 in 100 for Nonlinear.
Small sample: 17 launches, 0 hits.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 17 games tagged both Multiple Endings and Nonlinear priced under $5. 0.0 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 1.1 for Multiple Endings-only games and 1.2 for Nonlinear-only games, so games with both tags did worse than games with either tag alone.
Both: 17 games priced under $5; 0.0 in 100 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $303.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 17 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Multiple Endings + Nonlinear is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer by more than a quarter. It holds in 2 of 3.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view42 of 42 launches | Without the breakout41 of 42 launches | Last 18 months21 of 42 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 424 hits | 424 hits | 413 hits | 213 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 9.5 in 1001 in 11 | 9.5 in 1001 in 11 | 7.3 in 1001 in 14 | 14.3 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $2,123top tenth $90,629+ | $2,123 | $2,122 | $3,878 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | -23.2%2.2 fewer in 100 | +50.5%4.8 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%$1 less | +82.7%$1,755 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Multiple Endings and Nonlinear, 6 to 30 months old: 42 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 0 of 42 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days (78.9% of the money): 41 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 21 of 42.
Multiple Endings holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Multiple Endings | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,161 of 1,318 launches | Without the breakout1,317 of 1,318 launches | Last 18 months750 of 1,318 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,31896 hits | 1,16168 hits | 1,31795 hits | 75045 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 7.3 in 1001 in 14 | 5.9 in 1001 in 17 | 7.2 in 1001 in 14 | 6.0 in 1001 in 17 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,048top tenth $60,473+ | $1,007 | $1,029 | $808 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -19.2%1.4 fewer in 100 | -1.4%0.1 fewer in 100 | -17.8%1.3 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | -3.9%$41 less | -1.8%$19 less | -22.9%$240 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Multiple Endings, 6 to 30 months old: 1,318 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 157 of 1,318 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Legend of Mortal (12.0% of the money): 1,317 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 750 of 1,318.
Nonlinear is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer by more than a quarter. It holds in 2 of 3.
| Nonlinear | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view261 of 264 launches | Without the breakout263 of 264 launches | Last 18 months136 of 264 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 26419 hits | 26118 hits | 26318 hits | 13611 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 7.2 in 1001 in 14 | 6.9 in 1001 in 14 | 6.8 in 1001 in 15 | 8.1 in 1001 in 12 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,335top tenth $55,009+ | $1,335 | $1,314 | $2,123 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -4.2%0.3 fewer in 100 | -5.6%0.4 fewer in 100 | +12.5%0.9 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | -1.6%$21 less | +59.0%$788 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged Nonlinear, 6 to 30 months old: 264 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 3 of 264 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Another Crab's Treasure (37.8% of the money): 263 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 136 of 264.
A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Multiple Endings + Nonlinear moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.