Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Linear + Surreal
Games tagged both Linear and Surreal: 56 indie paid launches, 1 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Linear + Surreal priced under $5, hiding samples under 30 launches.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Linear + Surreal is too small to compare with Linear and is too small to compare with Surreal: 1 of its 39 launches earned $100k+ priced under $5, against 3 of 653 launches for Linear and 1.5 in 100 for Surreal.
Small sample: 39 launches, 1 hits.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 39 games tagged both Linear and Surreal priced under $5. 1 of 39 of them earned $100k+, against 2 of 614 for Linear-only games and 4 of 291 for Surreal-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Linear alone and is too small to compare with Surreal alone.
Both: 39 games priced under $5; 1 of 39 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 36 in 100 · $10k+ 2 of 39 launches · $100k+ 1 of 39 launches.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 39 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkOne-hit market. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: too few to tell. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: too few to tell.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Linear + Surreal is one-hit market: one game earned over half the money.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view56 of 56 launches | Without the breakout55 of 56 launches | Last 18 months14 of 56 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 561 hits | 561 hits | 550 hits | 140 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 1 of 56too few for a rate | 1 of 56too few for a rate | 0 of 55too few for a rate | 0 of 14too few for a rate |
| Chance of $10k+ | 3 of 56 launchescleared $10k; $1k+ 39 in 100 | under 100 launches | under 100 launches | under 100 launches |
| Chance against standard | the base | 0.0%no change; too few to tell | -100.0%1.8 fewer in 100 | -100.0%1.8 fewer in 100; too few to tell |
| Typical against standard | the base | under 100 launches | under 100 launches | under 100 launches |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Too few to tell | Moves the answer | Too few to tell |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Linear and Surreal, 12 to 36 months old: 56 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 0 of 56 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, RATSHAKER™ (60.8% of the money): 55 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 14 of 56.
Linear is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.
| Linear | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,010 of 1,038 launches | Without the breakout1,037 of 1,038 launches | Last 18 months289 of 1,038 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,03811 hits | 1,0109 hits | 1,03710 hits | 2894 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 1.1 in 1001 in 94 | 0.9 in 1001 in 112 | 1.0 in 1001 in 104 | 4 of 289too few for a rate |
| Typical first-year earnings | $310top tenth $6,319+ | $315 | $307 | $268 |
| Chance against standard | the base | -15.9%0.2 fewer in 100 | -9.0%0.1 fewer in 100 | +30.6%0.3 more in 100; too few to tell |
| Typical against standard | the base | +1.6%$5 more | -1.0%$3 less | -13.5%$42 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Moves the answer | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Linear, 12 to 36 months old: 1,038 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 28 of 1,038 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Spilled! (10.6% of the money): 1,037 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 289 of 1,038.
Surreal holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| Surreal | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view553 of 579 launches | Without the breakout578 of 579 launches | Last 18 months157 of 579 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 57935 hits | 55333 hits | 57834 hits | 1577 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 6.0 in 1001 in 17 | 6.0 in 1001 in 17 | 5.9 in 1001 in 17 | 4.5 in 1001 in 22 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,034top tenth $46,867+ | $1,020 | $1,034 | $1,161 |
| Chance against standard | the base | -1.3%0.1 fewer in 100 | -2.7%0.2 fewer in 100 | -26.2%1.6 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | -1.4%$14 less | 0.0%no change | +12.3%$127 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Surreal, 12 to 36 months old: 579 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 26 of 579 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, INDIKA (14.1% of the money): 578 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 157 of 579.
A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Linear + Surreal moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.