Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Niches / Historical + Simulation
Historical + Simulation
Games tagged both Historical and Simulation: 94 indie paid launches, 18 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Historical + Simulation priced $10 to $20, hiding samples under 30 launches. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats both its tags; priced $10 to $20 it has too few launches to read.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
24 launches, under your minimum sample of 30.
Pick another price band, or lower the minimum sample.
24 launches, under your minimum sample of 30.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 24 games tagged both Historical and Simulation priced $10 to $20. 8 of 24 of them earned $100k+, against 23.8 in 100 for Historical-only games and 23.5 in 100 for Simulation-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Historical alone and is too small to compare with Simulation alone.
Both: 24 games priced $10 to $20; 8 of 24 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 23 of 24 launches · $10k+ 16 of 24 launches · $100k+ 8 of 24 launches.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 24 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkOne-hit market. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Historical + Simulation is one-hit market: one game earned over half the money. It holds in West-facing view and Last 18 months.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view89 of 94 launches | Without the breakout93 of 94 launches | Last 18 months28 of 94 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 9418 hits | 8918 hits | 9317 hits | 286 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 19.1 in 100 | 20.2 in 100 | 18.3 in 100 | 6 of 28too few for a rate |
| Chance of $10k+ | 33 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 71 in 100 | under 100 launches | under 100 launches | under 100 launches |
| Chance against standard | the base | +5.6%1.1 more in 100 | -4.5%0.9 fewer in 100 | +11.9%2.3 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | under 100 launches | under 100 launches | under 100 launches |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Moves the answer | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Historical and Simulation, 12 to 36 months old: 94 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 5 of 94 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (82.5% of the money): 93 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 28 of 94.
Historical is one-hit market: one game earned over half the money. It holds in West-facing view and Last 18 months.
| Historical | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view378 of 425 launches | Without the breakout424 of 425 launches | Last 18 months106 of 425 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 42553 hits | 37847 hits | 42452 hits | 10612 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 12.5 in 100 | 12.4 in 100 | 12.3 in 100 | 11.3 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $2,124top tenth $185,560+ | $2,054 | $2,124 | $2,054 |
| Chance against standard | the base | -0.3%no change | -1.7%0.2 fewer in 100 | -9.2%1.1 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | -3.3%$70 less | 0.0%no change | -3.3%$70 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Moves the answer | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Historical, 12 to 36 months old: 425 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 47 of 425 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (63.2% of the money): 424 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 106 of 425.
Simulation holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| Simulation | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view4,191 of 4,442 launches | Without the breakout4,441 of 4,442 launches | Last 18 months1,386 of 4,442 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 4,442408 hits | 4,191389 hits | 4,441407 hits | 1,386133 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 9.2 in 1001 in 11 | 9.3 in 1001 in 11 | 9.2 in 1001 in 11 | 9.6 in 1001 in 10 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $929top tenth $86,074+ | $1,011 | $928 | $1,011 |
| Chance against standard | the base | +1.1%0.1 more in 100 | -0.2%no change | +4.5%0.4 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +8.8%$82 more | -0.1%$1 less | +8.8%$82 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Simulation, 12 to 36 months old: 4,442 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 251 of 4,442 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Schedule I (17.9% of the money): 4,441 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,386 of 4,442.
A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Historical + Simulation moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
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