Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Niches / Historical + RPG
Historical + RPG
Games tagged both Historical and RPG: 77 indie paid launches, 7 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Historical + RPG priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair trails Historical and beats RPG; priced $10 to $20 it beats both its tags.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Historical + RPG beats both its tags: 4 of its 16 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 22.7 in 100 for Historical and 18.5 in 100 for RPG.
Small sample: 16 launches, 4 hits.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 16 games tagged both Historical and RPG priced $10 to $20. 25.0 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 22.2 for Historical-only games and 18.4 for RPG-only games, so games with both tags did better than games with either tag alone.
Both: 16 games priced $10 to $20; 25.0 in 100 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $40,281.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 16 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkAudience-sensitive +1. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: moves the answer. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Historical + RPG is audience-sensitive +1: West-facing view moves the answer by more than a quarter, and 1 more lens too. It holds in 1 of 3.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view45 of 77 launches | Without the breakout76 of 77 launches | Last 18 months46 of 77 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 777 hits | 456 hits | 766 hits | 464 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 9.1 in 1001 in 11 | 13.3 in 100 | 7.9 in 1001 in 13 | 8.7 in 1001 in 11 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,946top tenth $81,378+ | $2,023 | $1,946 | $1,294 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | +46.2%4.2 more in 100 | -13.2%1.2 fewer in 100 | -4.4%0.4 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +4.0%$77 more | 0.0%no change | -33.5%$652 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Moves the answer | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Historical and RPG, 6 to 30 months old: 77 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 32 of 77 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, NORSE: Oath of Blood (35.9% of the money): 76 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 46 of 77.
Historical holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Historical | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view395 of 450 launches | Without the breakout449 of 450 launches | Last 18 months228 of 450 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 45057 hits | 39552 hits | 44956 hits | 22828 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 12.7 in 100 | 13.2 in 100 | 12.5 in 100 | 12.3 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $2,223top tenth $226,743+ | $2,223 | $2,183 | $1,920 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | +3.9%0.5 more in 100 | -1.6%0.2 fewer in 100 | -3.1%0.4 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | -1.8%$40 less | -13.6%$303 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Historical, 6 to 30 months old: 450 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 55 of 450 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (49.8% of the money): 449 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 228 of 450.
RPG holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| RPG | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view3,513 of 4,151 launches | Without the breakout4,150 of 4,151 launches | Last 18 months2,257 of 4,151 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 4,151319 hits | 3,513268 hits | 4,150318 hits | 2,257162 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 7.7 in 1001 in 13 | 7.6 in 1001 in 13 | 7.7 in 1001 in 13 | 7.2 in 1001 in 14 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $708top tenth $62,744+ | $728 | $708 | $607 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -1.3%0.1 fewer in 100 | 0.0%no change | -6.5%0.5 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +2.8%$20 more | 0.0%no change | -14.3%$101 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged RPG, 6 to 30 months old: 4,151 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 638 of 4,151 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Path of Exile 2 (16.6% of the money): 4,150 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,257 of 4,151.
A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Historical + RPG moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.