Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Historical + 3D: a typical launch earns $1,718 in its first year

That is the median of 40 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 6 of 78 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 7.4 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases fell 7% on the year before: 50 against 54.

Big publishers: over 85% from majors or $40+ games

Price: $1,718
Price vs a year earlier: +139.4%
Releases, 12 months: 50
Upcoming games: 179
Games on the store: 462

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Historical + 3D on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.22%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.11% to 0.37%	23 ranked of 179 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#978 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter. Big publishers: over 85% from majors or $40+ games	0.86xhits against expected	0.59x to 1.35x	78 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#3,669 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	Below this board's minimum sample, so not ranked. Needs 15 or more tracked games and 20 or more releases in each 12-month period.
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	Below this board's minimum sample, so not ranked. Needs 15 or more tracked games and 1,000 reviews in each window.

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 6
Expected: 7.4

Launches: 78
Hit rate: 7.7%2.7% to 15.0%
Expected rate: 9.5%
Against expected: 0.86x0.59x to 1.35x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

78 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $0
Median: $941
Top tenth: $58,412

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 50
Prior 12 months: 54

Change: −7%

Parent tags

HistoricalNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
3DNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Historical

pairs with Historical

Story Rich + Historical$9,68533 launches priced, 53 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Historical$5,28050 launches priced, 124 releases in 12 months
Historical + Wargame$4,50234 launches priced, 56 releases in 12 months
War + Historical$4,39930 launches priced, 43 releases in 12 months
Strategy + Historical$4,25980 launches priced, 157 releases in 12 months
RPG + Historical$4,25039 launches priced, 57 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Historical

More with 3D

pairs with 3D

3D + Dark Humor$3,90132 launches priced, 46 releases in 12 months
3D + Cozy$3,23738 launches priced, 91 releases in 12 months
3D + Economy$3,15761 launches priced, 109 releases in 12 months
3D + Management$2,196130 launches priced, 192 releases in 12 months
Story Rich + 3D$2,162144 launches priced, 256 releases in 12 months
3D + Resource Management$2,02434 launches priced, 66 releases in 12 months

Every pair with 3D

Verdicts

in development

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