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Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.

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on 30 Sep 2026

Niches / FMV + Simulation

Niche

FMV + Simulation

Games tagged both FMV and Simulation: 50 indie paid launches, 14 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

  • A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about".
  • Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
  • From 29,637 indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, data of 1 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Showing FMV + Simulation priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats both its tags; priced $10 to $20 it is level with FMV and beats Simulation.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

FMV + Simulation is level with FMV and beats Simulation: 9 of its 19 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 47.1 in 100 for FMV and 21.5 in 100 for Simulation.

Small sample: 19 launches, 9 hits.

1STTied winner
Tag oneFMV
47.1in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds47.1 in 100
Typical earnings$81,191
Launches51 / 24 hits
Pair is level0.3 in 100
1STTied winner
This pairFMV + Simulation
9 of 19launches earned
$100k+ small
Odds9 of 19 launches
Typical earnings$81,191
Launches19 / 9 hits
Expected18.6 in 100
3RDThird
Tag twoSimulation
21.5in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds21.5 in 100
Typical earnings$14,573
Launches1,006 / 216 hits
Pair leads by25.9 in 100
All indie launches $10 to $20: 18.6 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $9,226, from 4,810 launches.each block is 2.5 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page
All prices50 in pairUnder $510 in pair$5 to $1019 in pair$10 to $2019 in pair$20 to $402: too few
What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 19 games tagged both FMV and Simulation priced $10 to $20. 47.4 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 46.9 for FMV-only games and 21.0 for Simulation-only games, so games with both tags did better than games with either tag alone.

Both: 19 games priced $10 to $20; 47.4 in 100 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $81,191.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 19 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Mandate Of Heavenleads this pair20.4%
PairMandate Of Heaven20.4%
FMVRevenge on gold diggers21.3%
SimulationSchedule I15.4%
CheckOne game over half?no
NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkAudience-sensitive +2. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: moves the answer. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: moves the answer.

Open free preview
ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads FMV + Simulation

What this card holds

  • Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
  • One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
  • Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready
Same price banddata ready
Launched within a year of each otherplanned
Earned $100k+planned
The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

  • Mandate Of Heaven earned 20.4% of the estimated first-year money of the 50 FMV + Simulation launches.
  • FMV is led by Revenge on gold diggers, with 21.3% of its money.
  • Simulation is led by Schedule I, with 15.4% of its money.
  • No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

FMV + Simulation is audience-sensitive +2: West-facing view moves the answer by more than a quarter, and 2 more lenses too. It holds in 0 of 3.

FMV + Simulation through every lens, all prices
This pairBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view31 of 50 launchesWithout the breakout49 of 50 launchesLast 18 months34 of 50 launches
Launches counted5014 hits317 hits4913 hits349 hits
Earned $100k+28.0 in 10022.6 in 10026.5 in 10026.5 in 100
Typical first-year earnings$24,017top tenth $304,089+$14,438$17,006$17,006
Chance against standardthe yardstick-19.3%5.4 fewer in 100-5.4%1.5 fewer in 100-5.4%1.5 fewer in 100
Typical against standardthe yardstick-39.9%$9,579 less-29.2%$7,011 less-29.2%$7,011 less
Does it hold?The base viewMoves the answerMoves the answerMoves the answer
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both FMV and Simulation, 6 to 30 months old: 50 launches.

Launches counted
5014 hits
Earned $100k+
28.0 in 100
Typical first-year earnings
$24,017top tenth $304,089+
Chance against standard
the yardstick
Typical against standard
the yardstick
West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 19 of 50 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
317 hits
Earned $100k+
22.6 in 100
Typical first-year earnings
$14,438
Chance against standard
-19.3%5.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
-39.9%$9,579 less
Without the breakoutMoves the answer

Drops the single biggest earner, Mandate Of Heaven (20.4% of the money): 49 launches left.

Launches counted
4913 hits
Earned $100k+
26.5 in 100
Typical first-year earnings
$17,006
Chance against standard
-5.4%1.5 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
-29.2%$7,011 less
Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 34 of 50.

Launches counted
349 hits
Earned $100k+
26.5 in 100
Typical first-year earnings
$17,006
Chance against standard
-5.4%1.5 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
-29.2%$7,011 less
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged both FMV and Simulation, 6 to 30 months old: 50 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 19 of 50 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, Mandate Of Heaven (20.4% of the money): 49 launches left.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 34 of 50.

FMV is audience-sensitive +1: West-facing view moves the answer by more than a quarter, and 1 more lens too. It holds in 1 of 3.

FMV through every lens, all prices
FMVBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view121 of 172 launchesWithout the breakout171 of 172 launchesLast 18 months114 of 172 launches
Launches counted17238 hits12121 hits17137 hits11428 hits
Earned $100k+22.1 in 10017.4 in 10021.6 in 10024.6 in 100
Typical first-year earnings$10,510top tenth $228,875+$4,855$10,043$15,865
Chance against standardthe yardstick-21.3%4.7 fewer in 100-2.3%0.5 fewer in 100+11.3%2.5 more in 100
Typical against standardthe yardstick-53.8%$5,655 less-4.4%$467 less+51.0%$5,355 more
Does it hold?The base viewMoves the answerHoldsMoves the answer
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged FMV, 6 to 30 months old: 172 launches.

Launches counted
17238 hits
Earned $100k+
22.1 in 100
Typical first-year earnings
$10,510top tenth $228,875+
Chance against standard
the yardstick
Typical against standard
the yardstick
West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 51 of 172 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
12121 hits
Earned $100k+
17.4 in 100
Typical first-year earnings
$4,855
Chance against standard
-21.3%4.7 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
-53.8%$5,655 less
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Revenge on gold diggers (21.3% of the money): 171 launches left.

Launches counted
17137 hits
Earned $100k+
21.6 in 100
Typical first-year earnings
$10,043
Chance against standard
-2.3%0.5 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
-4.4%$467 less
Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 114 of 172.

Launches counted
11428 hits
Earned $100k+
24.6 in 100
Typical first-year earnings
$15,865
Chance against standard
+11.3%2.5 more in 100
Typical against standard
+51.0%$5,355 more
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged FMV, 6 to 30 months old: 172 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 51 of 172 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, Revenge on gold diggers (21.3% of the money): 171 launches left.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 114 of 172.

Simulation holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.

Simulation through every lens, all prices
SimulationBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view5,023 of 5,285 launchesWithout the breakout5,284 of 5,285 launchesLast 18 months3,070 of 5,285 launches
Launches counted5,285435 hits5,023411 hits5,284434 hits3,070225 hits
Earned $100k+8.2 in 1001 in 128.2 in 1001 in 128.2 in 1001 in 127.3 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings$982top tenth $69,988+$1,012$982$971
Chance against standardthe yardstick0.0%no change0.0%no change-11.0%0.9 fewer in 100
Typical against standardthe yardstick+3.1%$30 more0.0%no change-1.1%$11 less
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsHolds
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Simulation, 6 to 30 months old: 5,285 launches.

Launches counted
5,285435 hits
Earned $100k+
8.2 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings
$982top tenth $69,988+
Chance against standard
the yardstick
Typical against standard
the yardstick
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 262 of 5,285 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
5,023411 hits
Earned $100k+
8.2 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings
$1,012
Chance against standard
0.0%no change
Typical against standard
+3.1%$30 more
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Schedule I (15.4% of the money): 5,284 launches left.

Launches counted
5,284434 hits
Earned $100k+
8.2 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings
$982
Chance against standard
0.0%no change
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 3,070 of 5,285.

Launches counted
3,070225 hits
Earned $100k+
7.3 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings
$971
Chance against standard
-11.0%0.9 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
-1.1%$11 less
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged Simulation, 6 to 30 months old: 5,285 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 262 of 5,285 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, Schedule I (15.4% of the money): 5,284 launches left.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 3,070 of 5,285.

A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when FMV + Simulation moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.

Releases

Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.