Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Niches / First-Person + Open World
First-Person + Open World
Games tagged both First-Person and Open World: 168 indie paid launches, 27 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing First-Person + Open World priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats First-Person and is about level with Open World; priced $10 to $20 it beats both its tags.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
First-Person + Open World beats both its tags: 31.5 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 20.7 in 100 for First-Person and 27.8 in 100 for Open World.
That is about 1.8 times the 17.6 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 40.0 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 54 games tagged both First-Person and Open World priced $10 to $20. 31.5 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 19.5 in 100 for First-Person-only games and 26.9 in 100 for Open World-only games, so games with both tags did better than games with either tag alone.
Both: 54 games priced $10 to $20; 31.5 in 100 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $18,927.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 54 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkOne-hit market. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
First-Person + Open World is one-hit market: one game earned over half the money. It holds in West-facing view and Last 18 months.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view165 of 168 launches | Without the breakout167 of 168 launches | Last 18 months47 of 168 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 16827 hits | 16527 hits | 16726 hits | 476 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 16.1 in 100 | 16.4 in 100 | 15.6 in 100 | 12.8 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,349top tenth $289,238+ | $1,489 | $1,253 | $957 |
| Chance against standard | the base | +1.8%0.3 more in 100 | -3.1%0.5 fewer in 100 | -20.6%3.3 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +10.4%$140 more | -7.1%$96 less | -29.1%$392 less; too few to tell |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Moves the answer | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both First-Person and Open World, 12 to 36 months old: 168 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 3 of 168 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Schedule I (81.0% of the money): 167 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 47 of 168.
First-Person holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| First-Person | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view3,579 of 3,710 launches | Without the breakout3,709 of 3,710 launches | Last 18 months1,094 of 3,710 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 3,710239 hits | 3,579231 hits | 3,709238 hits | 1,09475 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 6.4 in 1001 in 16 | 6.5 in 1001 in 15 | 6.4 in 1001 in 16 | 6.9 in 1001 in 15 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $801top tenth $37,317+ | $802 | $798 | $766 |
| Chance against standard | the base | +0.2%no change | -0.4%no change | +6.4%0.4 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +0.1%$1 more | -0.4%$3 less | -4.4%$35 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged First-Person, 12 to 36 months old: 3,710 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 131 of 3,710 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Schedule I (16.5% of the money): 3,709 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,094 of 3,710.
Open World holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| Open World | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view819 of 861 launches | Without the breakout860 of 861 launches | Last 18 months222 of 861 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 861153 hits | 819146 hits | 860152 hits | 22239 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 17.8 in 100 | 17.8 in 100 | 17.7 in 100 | 17.6 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,856top tenth $355,406+ | $1,914 | $1,856 | $2,317 |
| Chance against standard | the base | +0.3%0.1 more in 100 | -0.5%0.1 fewer in 100 | -1.1%0.2 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +3.1%$58 more | 0.0%no change | +24.8%$461 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Open World, 12 to 36 months old: 861 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 42 of 861 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Palworld (31.1% of the money): 860 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 222 of 861.
A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when First-Person + Open World moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
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