Niche

Dialogue Heavy + Visual Novel

Games tagged both Dialogue Heavy and Visual Novel: 88 indie paid launches, 3 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,291 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 238 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2020 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,291 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20

Showing Dialogue Heavy + Visual Novel priced $10 to $20.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Dialogue Heavy + Visual Novel is too small to compare with Dialogue Heavy and is too small to compare with Visual Novel: 2 of its 23 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 3 of 42 launches for Dialogue Heavy and 14.7 in 100 for Visual Novel.

Small sample: 23 launches, 2 hits.

TIEA tie

Tag oneDialogue Heavy

3 of 42launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds3 of 42 launches

$1k+76 in 100

$10k+48 in 100

Launches42 / 3 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pairDialogue Heavy + Visual Novel

2 of 23launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds2 of 23 launches

$1k+19 of 23 launches

$10k+12 of 23 launches

Launches23 / 2 hits

Expected20.4 in 100

TIEA tie

Tag twoVisual Novel

14.7in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds14.7 in 100

Typical earnings$9,963

Launches434 / 64 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches $10 to $20: 20.4 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $10,978, from 4,304 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices88 in pair Under $538 in pair $5 to $1025 in pair $10 to $2023 in pair$20 to $402: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 23 games tagged both Dialogue Heavy and Visual Novel priced $10 to $20. 2 of 23 of them earned $100k+, against 1 of 19 for Dialogue Heavy-only games and 15.1 in 100 for Visual Novel-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Dialogue Heavy alone and is too small to compare with Visual Novel alone.

Both: 23 games priced $10 to $20; 2 of 23 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 19 of 23 launches · $10k+ 12 of 23 launches · $100k+ 2 of 23 launches.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 23 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Whispers from the Starleads this pair22.7%

PairWhispers from the Star22.7%

Dialogue HeavyThe Invincible30.9%

Visual NovelSlay the Princess — The Pristine Cut7.1%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 1 of 3, 2 too few to tell. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: too few to tell. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Dialogue Heavy + Visual Novel

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Whispers from the Star earned 22.7% of the estimated first-year money of the 88 Dialogue Heavy + Visual Novel launches.
Dialogue Heavy is led by The Invincible, with 30.9% of its money.
Visual Novel is led by Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut, with 7.1% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Dialogue Heavy + Visual Novel holds in Without the breakout; too few to tell in West-facing view and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Dialogue Heavy + Visual Novel through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view86 of 88 launches	Without the breakout87 of 88 launches	Last 18 months31 of 88 launches
Launches counted	883 hits	863 hits	872 hits	313 hits
Earned $100k+	3 of 88too few for a rate	3 of 86too few for a rate	2 of 87too few for a rate	3 of 31too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+	25 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 56 in 100	under 100 launches	under 100 launches	under 100 launches
Chance against standard	the base	+2.3%0.1 more in 100; too few to tell	-32.6%1.1 fewer in 100	+183.9%6.3 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	under 100 launches	under 100 launches	under 100 launches
Does it hold?	The base view	Too few to tell	Holds	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Dialogue Heavy and Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 88 launches.

Launches counted: 883 hits
Earned $100k+: 3 of 88too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: 25 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 56 in 100
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewToo few to tell

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 2 of 88 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 863 hits
Earned $100k+: 3 of 86too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: +2.3%0.1 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Whispers from the Star (22.7% of the money): 87 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 872 hits
Earned $100k+: 2 of 87too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -32.6%1.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 31 of 88.

Launches counted: 313 hits
Earned $100k+: 3 of 31too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: +183.9%6.3 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Dialogue Heavy and Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 88 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 2 of 88 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Whispers from the Star (22.7% of the money): 87 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 31 of 88.

Dialogue Heavy holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Dialogue Heavy through every lens, all prices
Dialogue Heavy	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view249 of 262 launches	Without the breakout261 of 262 launches	Last 18 months81 of 262 launches
Launches counted	26212 hits	24912 hits	26111 hits	816 hits
Earned $100k+	4.6 in 1001 in 22	4.8 in 1001 in 21	4.2 in 1001 in 24	7.4 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings	$929top tenth $37,886+	$1,034	$928	under 100 launches
Chance against standard	the base	+5.2%0.2 more in 100	-8.0%0.4 fewer in 100	+61.7%2.8 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+11.3%$105 more	-0.1%$1 less	under 100 launches
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Dialogue Heavy, 12 to 36 months old: 262 launches.

Launches counted: 26212 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.6 in 1001 in 22
Typical first-year earnings: $929top tenth $37,886+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 13 of 262 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 24912 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.8 in 1001 in 21
Typical first-year earnings: $1,034
Chance against standard: +5.2%0.2 more in 100
Typical against standard: +11.3%$105 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, The Invincible (30.9% of the money): 261 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 26111 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.2 in 1001 in 24
Typical first-year earnings: $928
Chance against standard: -8.0%0.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -0.1%$1 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 81 of 262.

Launches counted: 816 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.4 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: +61.7%2.8 more in 100
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Dialogue Heavy, 12 to 36 months old: 262 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 13 of 262 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, The Invincible (30.9% of the money): 261 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 81 of 262.

Visual Novel is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

Visual Novel through every lens, all prices
Visual Novel	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view1,641 of 1,872 launches	Without the breakout1,871 of 1,872 launches	Last 18 months534 of 1,872 launches
Launches counted	1,872130 hits	1,64199 hits	1,871129 hits	53441 hits
Earned $100k+	6.9 in 1001 in 14	6.0 in 1001 in 17	6.9 in 1001 in 15	7.7 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings	$1,448top tenth $61,563+	$1,430	$1,445	$1,594
Chance against standard	the base	-13.1%0.9 fewer in 100	-0.7%no change	+10.6%0.7 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-1.2%$18 less	-0.2%$3 less	+10.1%$146 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 1,872 launches.

Launches counted: 1,872130 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.9 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $1,448top tenth $61,563+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 231 of 1,872 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1,64199 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.0 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings: $1,430
Chance against standard: -13.1%0.9 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -1.2%$18 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut (7.1% of the money): 1,871 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1,871129 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.9 in 1001 in 15
Typical first-year earnings: $1,445
Chance against standard: -0.7%no change
Typical against standard: -0.2%$3 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 534 of 1,872.

Launches counted: 53441 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.7 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $1,594
Chance against standard: +10.6%0.7 more in 100
Typical against standard: +10.1%$146 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 1,872 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 231 of 1,872 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut (7.1% of the money): 1,871 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 534 of 1,872.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Dialogue Heavy + Visual Novel moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

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Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.