Niche

Detective + Exploration

Games tagged both Detective and Exploration: 158 indie paid launches, 14 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,280 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 17 hit $100k+Under $51 in 219 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 30 hit $100k+$10 to $2018 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4040 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,280 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20

Showing Detective + Exploration priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is about level with Detective and is about level with Exploration; priced $10 to $20 it is too small to compare with Detective and is too small to compare with Exploration.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Detective + Exploration is too small to compare with Detective and is too small to compare with Exploration: 4 of its 32 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 20.8 in 100 for Detective and 17.3 in 100 for Exploration.

Small sample: 32 launches, 4 hits.

TIEA tie

Tag oneDetective

20.8in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds20.8 in 100

Typical earnings$9,645

Launches106 / 22 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pairDetective + Exploration

4 of 32launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds4 of 32 launches

Typical earnings$3,485

Launches32 / 4 hits

Expected17.6 in 100

TIETied

Tag twomood tagExploration

17.3in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds17.3 in 100

Typical earnings$9,369

Launches878 / 152 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches $10 to $20: 17.6 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $8,234, from 4,301 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Exploration is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 40.0 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices158 in pair Under $562 in pair $5 to $1049 in pair $10 to $2032 in pair $20 to $4015 in pair

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 32 games tagged both Detective and Exploration priced $10 to $20. 4 of 32 of them earned $100k+, against 24.3 in 100 for Detective-only games and 17.5 in 100 for Exploration-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Detective alone and is too small to compare with Exploration alone.

Both: 32 games priced $10 to $20; 4 of 32 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $3,485.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 32 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Murders on the Yangtze Riverleads this pair31.8%

PairMurders on the Yangtze River31.8%

DetectiveThe Precinct14.3%

ExplorationHollow Knight: Silksong21.4%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 2 of 3, 1 too few to tell. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Detective + Exploration

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Murders on the Yangtze River earned 31.8% of the estimated first-year money of the 158 Detective + Exploration launches.
Detective is led by The Precinct, with 14.3% of its money.
Exploration is led by Hollow Knight: Silksong, with 21.4% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Detective + Exploration holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout; too few to tell in Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Detective + Exploration through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view145 of 158 launches	Without the breakout157 of 158 launches	Last 18 months39 of 158 launches
Launches counted	15814 hits	14513 hits	15713 hits	394 hits
Earned $100k+	8.9 in 1001 in 11	9.0 in 1001 in 11	8.3 in 1001 in 12	4 of 39too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings	$1,215top tenth $65,884+	$1,136	$1,136	$2,181
Chance against standard	the base	+1.2%0.1 more in 100	-6.6%0.6 fewer in 100	+15.8%1.4 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	-6.5%$79 less	-6.5%$79 less	+79.5%$966 more; too few to tell
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Detective and Exploration, 12 to 36 months old: 158 launches.

Launches counted: 15814 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.9 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings: $1,215top tenth $65,884+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 13 of 158 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 14513 hits
Earned $100k+: 9.0 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings: $1,136
Chance against standard: +1.2%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard: -6.5%$79 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Murders on the Yangtze River (31.8% of the money): 157 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 15713 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.3 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $1,136
Chance against standard: -6.6%0.6 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -6.5%$79 less

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 39 of 158.

Launches counted: 394 hits
Earned $100k+: 4 of 39too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $2,181
Chance against standard: +15.8%1.4 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: +79.5%$966 more; too few to tell

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Detective and Exploration, 12 to 36 months old: 158 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 13 of 158 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Murders on the Yangtze River (31.8% of the money): 157 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 39 of 158.

Detective is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

Detective through every lens, all prices
Detective	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view467 of 517 launches	Without the breakout516 of 517 launches	Last 18 months128 of 517 launches
Launches counted	51745 hits	46737 hits	51644 hits	12811 hits
Earned $100k+	8.7 in 1001 in 11	7.9 in 1001 in 13	8.5 in 1001 in 12	8.6 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings	$921top tenth $71,859+	$1,003	$921	$1,034
Chance against standard	the base	-9.0%0.8 fewer in 100	-2.0%0.2 fewer in 100	-1.3%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+8.9%$82 more	0.0%no change	+12.3%$113 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Detective, 12 to 36 months old: 517 launches.

Launches counted: 51745 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.7 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings: $921top tenth $71,859+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 50 of 517 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 46737 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.9 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $1,003
Chance against standard: -9.0%0.8 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +8.9%$82 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, The Precinct (14.3% of the money): 516 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 51644 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.5 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $921
Chance against standard: -2.0%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 128 of 517.

Launches counted: 12811 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.6 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $1,034
Chance against standard: -1.3%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +12.3%$113 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Detective, 12 to 36 months old: 517 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 50 of 517 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, The Precinct (14.3% of the money): 516 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 128 of 517.

Exploration holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Exploration through every lens, all prices
Exploration	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view4,379 of 4,579 launches	Without the breakout4,578 of 4,579 launches	Last 18 months1,268 of 4,579 launches
Launches counted	4,579337 hits	4,379321 hits	4,578336 hits	1,26896 hits
Earned $100k+	7.4 in 1001 in 14	7.3 in 1001 in 14	7.3 in 1001 in 14	7.6 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings	$861top tenth $53,530+	$862	$861	$861
Chance against standard	the base	-0.4%no change	-0.3%no change	+2.9%0.2 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+0.1%$1 more	0.0%no change	0.0%no change
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Exploration, 12 to 36 months old: 4,579 launches.

Launches counted: 4,579337 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.4 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $861top tenth $53,530+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 200 of 4,579 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 4,379321 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.3 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $862
Chance against standard: -0.4%no change
Typical against standard: +0.1%$1 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (21.4% of the money): 4,578 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 4,578336 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.3 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $861
Chance against standard: -0.3%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,268 of 4,579.

Launches counted: 1,26896 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.6 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $861
Chance against standard: +2.9%0.2 more in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Exploration, 12 to 36 months old: 4,579 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 200 of 4,579 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (21.4% of the money): 4,578 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,268 of 4,579.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Detective + Exploration moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.