Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Niches / Dark + Simulation
Dark + Simulation
Games tagged both Dark and Simulation: 156 indie paid launches, 4 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Dark + Simulation priced $10 to $20, hiding samples under 30 launches. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair trails both its tags; priced $10 to $20 it has too few launches to read.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
12 launches, under your minimum sample of 30.
Pick another price band, or lower the minimum sample.
12 launches, under your minimum sample of 30.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 12 games tagged both Dark and Simulation priced $10 to $20. 8.3 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 17.3 for Dark-only games and 21.6 for Simulation-only games, so games with both tags did worse than games with either tag alone.
Both: 12 games priced $10 to $20; 8.3 in 100 earned $100k+ (1 in 12), typical first-year earnings $14,417.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 12 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkOne-hit market. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Dark + Simulation is one-hit market: Without the breakout moves the answer by more than a quarter. It holds in 2 of 3.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view153 of 156 launches | Without the breakout155 of 156 launches | Last 18 months90 of 156 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1564 hits | 1533 hits | 1553 hits | 902 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 2.6 in 1001 in 38 | 2.0 in 1001 in 50 | 1.9 in 1001 in 53 | 2.2 in 1001 in 45 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,415top tenth $24,017+ | $1,330 | $1,332 | $1,415 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -23.1%0.6 fewer in 100 | -26.9%0.7 fewer in 100 | -15.4%0.4 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | -6.0%$85 less | -5.9%$83 less | 0.0%no change |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Moves the answer | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Dark and Simulation, 6 to 30 months old: 156 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 3 of 156 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Strange Antiquities (31.8% of the money): 155 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 90 of 156.
Dark holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Dark | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,414 of 1,445 launches | Without the breakout1,444 of 1,445 launches | Last 18 months785 of 1,445 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,44574 hits | 1,41472 hits | 1,44473 hits | 78534 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 5.1 in 1001 in 20 | 5.1 in 1001 in 20 | 5.1 in 1001 in 20 | 4.3 in 1001 in 23 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $849top tenth $28,119+ | $887 | $849 | $808 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | -15.7%0.8 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +4.5%$38 more | 0.0%no change | -4.8%$41 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Dark, 6 to 30 months old: 1,445 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 31 of 1,445 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Mouthwashing (11.5% of the money): 1,444 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 785 of 1,445.
Simulation holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Simulation | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view5,023 of 5,285 launches | Without the breakout5,284 of 5,285 launches | Last 18 months3,070 of 5,285 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 5,285435 hits | 5,023411 hits | 5,284434 hits | 3,070225 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 8.2 in 1001 in 12 | 8.2 in 1001 in 12 | 8.2 in 1001 in 12 | 7.3 in 1001 in 14 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $982top tenth $69,988+ | $1,012 | $982 | $971 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | -11.0%0.9 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +3.1%$30 more | 0.0%no change | -1.1%$11 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Simulation, 6 to 30 months old: 5,285 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 262 of 5,285 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Schedule I (15.4% of the money): 5,284 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 3,070 of 5,285.
A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Dark + Simulation moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.