Niche

Cinematic + RPG

Games tagged both Cinematic and RPG: 48 indie paid launches, 8 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,280 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 17 hit $100k+Under $51 in 219 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 30 hit $100k+$10 to $2018 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4040 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,280 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20

Showing Cinematic + RPG priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats both its tags; priced $10 to $20 it is too small to compare with Cinematic and is too small to compare with RPG.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Cinematic + RPG is too small to compare with Cinematic and is too small to compare with RPG: 4 of its 11 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 28.4 in 100 for Cinematic and 17.6 in 100 for RPG.

Small sample: 11 launches, 4 hits.

TIEA tie

Tag oneCinematic

28.4in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds28.4 in 100

Typical earnings$20,773

Launches88 / 25 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pairCinematic + RPG

4 of 11launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds4 of 11 launches

Typical earnings$34,685

Launches11 / 4 hits

Expected17.6 in 100

TIETied

Tag twoRPG

17.6in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds17.6 in 100

Typical earnings$8,454

Launches786 / 138 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches $10 to $20: 17.6 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $8,234, from 4,301 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 40.0 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices48 in pair Under $518 in pair $5 to $1018 in pair $10 to $2011 in pair$20 to $401: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 11 games tagged both Cinematic and RPG priced $10 to $20. 4 of 11 of them earned $100k+, against 27.3 in 100 for Cinematic-only games and 17.3 in 100 for RPG-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Cinematic alone and is too small to compare with RPG alone.

Both: 11 games priced $10 to $20; 4 of 11 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $34,685.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 11 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Minds Beneath Usleads this pair26.8%

PairMinds Beneath Us26.8%

CinematicThe Casting of Frank Stone™8.9%

RPGPath of Exile 218.0%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 1 of 3, 2 too few to tell. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: too few to tell. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Cinematic + RPG

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Minds Beneath Us earned 26.8% of the estimated first-year money of the 48 Cinematic + RPG launches.
Cinematic is led by The Casting of Frank Stone™, with 8.9% of its money.
RPG is led by Path of Exile 2, with 18.0% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Cinematic + RPG holds in Without the breakout; too few to tell in West-facing view and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Cinematic + RPG through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view31 of 48 launches	Without the breakout47 of 48 launches	Last 18 months14 of 48 launches
Launches counted	488 hits	313 hits	477 hits	142 hits
Earned $100k+	16.7 in 100	3 of 31too few for a rate	14.9 in 100	2 of 14too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings	$878top tenth $277,806+	$188	$567	$286
Chance against standard	the base	-41.9%7.0 fewer in 100; too few to tell	-10.6%1.8 fewer in 100	-14.3%2.4 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	-78.6%$690 less; too few to tell	-35.4%$311 less	-67.4%$592 less; too few to tell
Does it hold?	The base view	Too few to tell	Holds	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Cinematic and RPG, 12 to 36 months old: 48 launches.

Launches counted: 488 hits
Earned $100k+: 16.7 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $878top tenth $277,806+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewToo few to tell

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 17 of 48 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 313 hits
Earned $100k+: 3 of 31too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $188
Chance against standard: -41.9%7.0 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: -78.6%$690 less; too few to tell

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Minds Beneath Us (26.8% of the money): 47 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 477 hits
Earned $100k+: 14.9 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $567
Chance against standard: -10.6%1.8 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -35.4%$311 less

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 14 of 48.

Launches counted: 142 hits
Earned $100k+: 2 of 14too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $286
Chance against standard: -14.3%2.4 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: -67.4%$592 less; too few to tell

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Cinematic and RPG, 12 to 36 months old: 48 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 17 of 48 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Minds Beneath Us (26.8% of the money): 47 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 14 of 48.

Cinematic is audience split +1: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would, and 1 more lens too. It holds in Without the breakout.

Cinematic through every lens, all prices
Cinematic	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view448 of 483 launches	Without the breakout482 of 483 launches	Last 18 months144 of 483 launches
Launches counted	48357 hits	44848 hits	48256 hits	14423 hits
Earned $100k+	11.8 in 100	10.7 in 100	11.6 in 100	16.0 in 100
Typical first-year earnings	$1,272top tenth $121,998+	$1,205	$1,272	$1,300
Chance against standard	the base	-9.2%1.1 fewer in 100	-1.6%0.2 fewer in 100	+35.3%4.2 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-5.3%$67 less	0.0%no change	+2.2%$28 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Cinematic, 12 to 36 months old: 483 launches.

Launches counted: 48357 hits
Earned $100k+: 11.8 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,272top tenth $121,998+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 35 of 483 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 44848 hits
Earned $100k+: 10.7 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,205
Chance against standard: -9.2%1.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -5.3%$67 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, The Casting of Frank Stone™ (8.9% of the money): 482 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 48256 hits
Earned $100k+: 11.6 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,272
Chance against standard: -1.6%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 144 of 483.

Launches counted: 14423 hits
Earned $100k+: 16.0 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,300
Chance against standard: +35.3%4.2 more in 100
Typical against standard: +2.2%$28 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Cinematic, 12 to 36 months old: 483 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 35 of 483 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, The Casting of Frank Stone™ (8.9% of the money): 482 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 144 of 483.

RPG is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

RPG through every lens, all prices
RPG	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view3,125 of 3,715 launches	Without the breakout3,714 of 3,715 launches	Last 18 months1,018 of 3,715 launches
Launches counted	3,715270 hits	3,125225 hits	3,714269 hits	1,01882 hits
Earned $100k+	7.3 in 1001 in 14	7.2 in 1001 in 14	7.2 in 1001 in 14	8.1 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings	$675top tenth $51,629+	$729	$675	$859
Chance against standard	the base	-0.9%0.1 fewer in 100	-0.3%no change	+10.8%0.8 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+8.0%$54 more	0.0%no change	+27.3%$184 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged RPG, 12 to 36 months old: 3,715 launches.

Launches counted: 3,715270 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.3 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $675top tenth $51,629+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 590 of 3,715 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 3,125225 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.2 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $729
Chance against standard: -0.9%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +8.0%$54 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Path of Exile 2 (18.0% of the money): 3,714 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 3,714269 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.2 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $675
Chance against standard: -0.3%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,018 of 3,715.

Launches counted: 1,01882 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.1 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $859
Chance against standard: +10.8%0.8 more in 100
Typical against standard: +27.3%$184 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged RPG, 12 to 36 months old: 3,715 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 590 of 3,715 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Path of Exile 2 (18.0% of the money): 3,714 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,018 of 3,715.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Cinematic + RPG moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.