Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Niches / Choose Your Own Adventure + Visual Novel
Choose Your Own Adventure + Visual Novel
Games tagged both Choose Your Own Adventure and Visual Novel: 552 indie paid launches, 33 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Choose Your Own Adventure + Visual Novel priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats Choose Your Own Adventure and is level with Visual Novel; priced $10 to $20 it trails both its tags.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Choose Your Own Adventure + Visual Novel trails both its tags: 12.7 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 13.4 in 100 for Choose Your Own Adventure and 14.6 in 100 for Visual Novel.
That is about 0.7 times the 18.6 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 142 games tagged both Choose Your Own Adventure and Visual Novel priced $10 to $20. 12.7 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 14.3 for Choose Your Own Adventure-only games and 15.4 for Visual Novel-only games, so games with both tags did worse than games with either tag alone.
Both: 142 games priced $10 to $20; 12.7 in 100 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $3,783.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 142 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Choose Your Own Adventure + Visual Novel holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view525 of 552 launches | Without the breakout551 of 552 launches | Last 18 months304 of 552 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 55233 hits | 52529 hits | 55132 hits | 30416 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 6.0 in 1001 in 17 | 5.5 in 1001 in 18 | 5.8 in 1001 in 17 | 5.3 in 1001 in 19 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,132top tenth $38,580+ | $1,124 | $1,124 | $862 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -8.3%0.5 fewer in 100 | -3.3%0.2 fewer in 100 | -11.7%0.7 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | -0.7%$8 less | -0.7%$8 less | -23.9%$270 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Choose Your Own Adventure and Visual Novel, 6 to 30 months old: 552 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 27 of 552 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Homicipher (10.4% of the money): 551 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 304 of 552.
Choose Your Own Adventure holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Choose Your Own Adventure | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,105 of 1,156 launches | Without the breakout1,155 of 1,156 launches | Last 18 months620 of 1,156 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,15661 hits | 1,10553 hits | 1,15560 hits | 62033 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 5.3 in 1001 in 19 | 4.8 in 1001 in 21 | 5.2 in 1001 in 19 | 5.3 in 1001 in 19 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $908top tenth $27,310+ | $849 | $899 | $707 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -9.4%0.5 fewer in 100 | -1.9%0.1 fewer in 100 | 0.0%no change |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | -6.5%$59 less | -1.0%$9 less | -22.1%$201 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Choose Your Own Adventure, 6 to 30 months old: 1,156 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 51 of 1,156 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Revenge on gold diggers (9.4% of the money): 1,155 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 620 of 1,156.
Visual Novel is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer by more than a quarter. It holds in 2 of 3.
| Visual Novel | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,823 of 2,114 launches | Without the breakout2,113 of 2,114 launches | Last 18 months1,162 of 2,114 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 2,114130 hits | 1,823100 hits | 2,113129 hits | 1,16263 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 6.1 in 1001 in 16 | 5.5 in 1001 in 18 | 6.1 in 1001 in 16 | 5.4 in 1001 in 19 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,293top tenth $48,802+ | $1,214 | $1,287 | $910 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -9.8%0.6 fewer in 100 | 0.0%no change | -11.5%0.7 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | -6.1%$79 less | -0.5%$6 less | -29.6%$383 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged Visual Novel, 6 to 30 months old: 2,114 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 291 of 2,114 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Until Then (7.5% of the money): 2,113 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,162 of 2,114.
A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Choose Your Own Adventure + Visual Novel moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
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