Niche

Choices Matter + Visual Novel

Games tagged both Choices Matter and Visual Novel: 357 indie paid launches, 31 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,291 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 238 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2020 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,291 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20

Showing Choices Matter + Visual Novel priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is about level with Choices Matter and is about level with Visual Novel; priced $10 to $20 it is about level with Choices Matter and beats Visual Novel.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Choices Matter + Visual Novel is about level with Choices Matter and beats Visual Novel: 20.6 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 23.0 in 100 for Choices Matter and 14.7 in 100 for Visual Novel.

That is about 1.0 times the 20.4 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.

TIEA tie

Tag onemood tagChoices Matter

23.0in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds23.0 in 100

Typical earnings$18,976

Launches248 / 57 hits

A tie, apart by2.4 in 100

TIEA tie

This pairChoices Matter + Visual Novel

20.6in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds20.6 in 100

$1k+89 in 100

$10k+60 in 100

Launches97 / 20 hits

Expected20.4 in 100

3RDThird

Tag twoVisual Novel

14.7in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds14.7 in 100

Typical earnings$9,963

Launches434 / 64 hits

Pair leads by5.9 in 100

All indie launches $10 to $20: 20.4 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $10,978, from 4,304 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Choices Matter is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices357 in pair Under $5133 in pair $5 to $10108 in pair $10 to $2097 in pair $20 to $4019 in pair

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 97 games tagged both Choices Matter and Visual Novel priced $10 to $20. 20.6 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 24.5 in 100 for Choices Matter-only games and 13.1 in 100 for Visual Novel-only games, so the mix trails Choices Matter alone and beats Visual Novel alone.

Both: 97 games priced $10 to $20; 20.6 in 100 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 89 in 100 · $10k+ 60 in 100 · $100k+ 21 in 100.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 97 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cutleads this pair21.7%

PairSlay the Princess — The Pristine Cut21.7%

Choices MatterLegend of Mortal10.2%

Visual NovelSlay the Princess — The Pristine Cut7.1%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkAudience split. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: moves the answer. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Choices Matter + Visual Novel

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut earned 21.7% of the estimated first-year money of the 357 Choices Matter + Visual Novel launches.
Choices Matter is led by Legend of Mortal, with 10.2% of its money.
It also leads Visual Novel, with 7.1% of that tag's money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Choices Matter + Visual Novel is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

Choices Matter + Visual Novel through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view335 of 357 launches	Without the breakout356 of 357 launches	Last 18 months106 of 357 launches
Launches counted	35731 hits	33523 hits	35630 hits	1068 hits
Earned $100k+	8.7 in 1001 in 12	6.9 in 1001 in 15	8.4 in 1001 in 12	7.5 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings	$1,688top tenth $85,020+	$1,517	$1,688	$1,926
Chance against standard	the base	-20.9%1.8 fewer in 100	-3.0%0.3 fewer in 100	-13.1%1.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-10.1%$171 less	0.0%no change	+14.1%$238 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Choices Matter and Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 357 launches.

Launches counted: 35731 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.7 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $1,688top tenth $85,020+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 22 of 357 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 33523 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.9 in 1001 in 15
Typical first-year earnings: $1,517
Chance against standard: -20.9%1.8 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -10.1%$171 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut (21.7% of the money): 356 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 35630 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.4 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $1,688
Chance against standard: -3.0%0.3 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 106 of 357.

Launches counted: 1068 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.5 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $1,926
Chance against standard: -13.1%1.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +14.1%$238 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Choices Matter and Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 357 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 22 of 357 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut (21.7% of the money): 356 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 106 of 357.

Choices Matter is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

Choices Matter through every lens, all prices
Choices Matter	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view1,091 of 1,146 launches	Without the breakout1,145 of 1,146 launches	Last 18 months340 of 1,146 launches
Launches counted	1,146109 hits	1,09196 hits	1,145108 hits	34028 hits
Earned $100k+	9.5 in 1001 in 11	8.8 in 1001 in 11	9.4 in 1001 in 11	8.2 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings	$1,189top tenth $92,318+	$1,172	$1,181	$928
Chance against standard	the base	-7.5%0.7 fewer in 100	-0.8%0.1 fewer in 100	-13.4%1.3 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-1.4%$17 less	-0.7%$8 less	-22.0%$261 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Choices Matter, 12 to 36 months old: 1,146 launches.

Launches counted: 1,146109 hits
Earned $100k+: 9.5 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings: $1,189top tenth $92,318+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 55 of 1,146 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1,09196 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.8 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings: $1,172
Chance against standard: -7.5%0.7 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -1.4%$17 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Legend of Mortal (10.2% of the money): 1,145 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1,145108 hits
Earned $100k+: 9.4 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings: $1,181
Chance against standard: -0.8%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -0.7%$8 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 340 of 1,146.

Launches counted: 34028 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.2 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $928
Chance against standard: -13.4%1.3 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -22.0%$261 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Choices Matter, 12 to 36 months old: 1,146 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 55 of 1,146 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Legend of Mortal (10.2% of the money): 1,145 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 340 of 1,146.

Visual Novel is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

Visual Novel through every lens, all prices
Visual Novel	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view1,641 of 1,872 launches	Without the breakout1,871 of 1,872 launches	Last 18 months534 of 1,872 launches
Launches counted	1,872130 hits	1,64199 hits	1,871129 hits	53441 hits
Earned $100k+	6.9 in 1001 in 14	6.0 in 1001 in 17	6.9 in 1001 in 15	7.7 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings	$1,448top tenth $61,563+	$1,430	$1,445	$1,594
Chance against standard	the base	-13.1%0.9 fewer in 100	-0.7%no change	+10.6%0.7 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-1.2%$18 less	-0.2%$3 less	+10.1%$146 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 1,872 launches.

Launches counted: 1,872130 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.9 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $1,448top tenth $61,563+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 231 of 1,872 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1,64199 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.0 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings: $1,430
Chance against standard: -13.1%0.9 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -1.2%$18 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut (7.1% of the money): 1,871 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1,871129 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.9 in 1001 in 15
Typical first-year earnings: $1,445
Chance against standard: -0.7%no change
Typical against standard: -0.2%$3 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 534 of 1,872.

Launches counted: 53441 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.7 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $1,594
Chance against standard: +10.6%0.7 more in 100
Typical against standard: +10.1%$146 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 1,872 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 231 of 1,872 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut (7.1% of the money): 1,871 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 534 of 1,872.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Choices Matter + Visual Novel moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.