Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Casual + Realistic: a typical launch earns $405 in its first year

That is the median of 197 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 17 of 394 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 22.4 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 21% on the year before: 288 against 238.

Price: $405
Price vs a year earlier: −16.7%
Releases, 12 months: 288
Upcoming games: 454
Games on the store: 1,678

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Casual + Realistic on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it. One game dominates the figure Listed after unflagged rows on this board	0.59%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.24% to 1.08%	55 ranked of 454 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#4,455 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.	0.79xhits against expected	0.57x to 1.10x	394 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#4,170 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches. One game dominates the figure	+18%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	+1% to +40%	67 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#814 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal. One game dominates the figure Listed after unflagged rows on this board	+3%review growth against same-age games	−4% to +11%	67 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#1,799 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 17
Expected: 22.4

Launches: 394
Hit rate: 4.3%2.2% to 8.1%
Expected rate: 5.7%
Against expected: 0.79x0.57x to 1.10x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

394 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $0
Median: $525
Top tenth: $24,686

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 288
Prior 12 months: 238

Change: +21%
Against Steam: −12%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

CasualNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
RealisticNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Casual

pairs with Casual

Casual + Job Simulator$8,44230 launches priced, 54 releases in 12 months
Casual + LGBTQ+$4,15442 launches priced, 95 releases in 12 months
Casual + Romance$2,61486 launches priced, 137 releases in 12 months
Casual + Economy$2,204112 launches priced, 302 releases in 12 months
Casual + Online Co-Op$1,970104 launches priced, 272 releases in 12 months
Casual + Capitalism$1,92351 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Casual

More with Realistic

pairs with Realistic

Multiplayer + Realistic$17,04044 launches priced, 62 releases in 12 months
Realistic + Management$13,70546 launches priced, 74 releases in 12 months
Realistic + Economy$10,95531 launches priced, 37 releases in 12 months
Realistic + Life Sim$6,57659 launches priced, 88 releases in 12 months
Sandbox + Realistic$5,46362 launches priced, 72 releases in 12 months
Thriller + Realistic$3,21454 launches priced, 56 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Realistic

Verdicts

in development

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