Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Casual + Horror: a typical launch earns $434 in its first year

That is the median of 234 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 15 of 482 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 12.3 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 29% on the year before: 355 against 275.

Price: $434
Price vs a year earlier: −46.0%
Releases, 12 months: 355
Upcoming games: 509
Games on the store: 2,126

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Casual + Horror on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it. One game dominates the figure Listed after unflagged rows on this board	0.28%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.12% to 0.53%	35 ranked of 509 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#4,818 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.	1.18xhits against expected	0.84x to 1.68x	482 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#1,856 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	+12%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−4% to +28%	80 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#1,026 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	+5%review growth against same-age games	−3% to +12%	80 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#568 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 15
Expected: 12.3

Launches: 482
Hit rate: 3.1%1.6% to 5.9%
Expected rate: 2.5%
Against expected: 1.18x0.84x to 1.68x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

482 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $0
Median: $505
Top tenth: $16,704

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 355
Prior 12 months: 275

Change: +29%
Against Steam: −6%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

CasualNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
HorrorGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Casual

pairs with Casual

Casual + Job Simulator$8,44230 launches priced, 54 releases in 12 months
Casual + LGBTQ+$4,15442 launches priced, 95 releases in 12 months
Casual + Romance$2,61486 launches priced, 137 releases in 12 months
Casual + Economy$2,204112 launches priced, 302 releases in 12 months
Casual + Online Co-Op$1,970104 launches priced, 272 releases in 12 months
Casual + Capitalism$1,92351 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Casual

More with Horror

pairs with Horror

Horror + Co-op$7,08089 launches priced, 127 releases in 12 months
Horror + Online Co-Op$5,819120 launches priced, 169 releases in 12 months
Horror + Multiplayer$5,680106 launches priced, 172 releases in 12 months
Horror + Lovecraftian$3,41850 launches priced, 72 releases in 12 months
Horror + Roguelike$3,33937 launches priced, 73 releases in 12 months
Horror + Text-Based$2,83130 launches priced, 65 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Horror

Verdicts

in development

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