Niche

Arcade + Surreal

Games tagged both Arcade and Surreal: 47 indie paid launches, 2 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,280 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price Under $5

All prices1 in 17 hit $100k+Under $51 in 219 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 30 hit $100k+$10 to $2018 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4040 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,280 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

Under $5

Showing Arcade + Surreal priced under $5.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?Under $5

Arcade + Surreal is too small to compare with Arcade and is too small to compare with Surreal: 1 of its 33 launches earned $100k+ priced under $5, against 0.3 in 100 for Arcade and 1.5 in 100 for Surreal.

Small sample: 33 launches, 1 hits.

TIEA tie

Tag oneArcade

0.3in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds1 in 376

Typical earnings$101

Launches2,256 / 6 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pairArcade + Surreal

1 of 33launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds1 of 33 launches

Typical earnings$152

Launches33 / 1 hits

Expected0.5 in 100

TIEA tie

Tag twomood tagSurreal

1.5in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds1 in 66

Typical earnings$425

Launches329 / 5 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches under $5: 0.5 in 100 earned $100k+ (1 in 219), typical $169, from 13,780 launches.each block is 0.5 in 100 all indie at under $5Surreal is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 40.0 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices47 in pair Under $533 in pair$5 to $109: too few$10 to $204: too few$20 to $401: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 33 games tagged both Arcade and Surreal priced under $5. 1 of 33 of them earned $100k+, against 0.2 in 100 for Arcade-only games and 4 of 296 for Surreal-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Arcade alone and is too small to compare with Surreal alone.

Both: 33 games priced under $5; 1 of 33 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $152.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 33 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Nubby's Number Factoryleads this pair85.7%

PairNubby's Number Factory85.7%

ArcadeREMATCH32.2%

SurrealINDIKA12.6%

CheckOne game over half?yes

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkOne-hit market. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: too few to tell. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Arcade + Surreal

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Nubby's Number Factory earned 85.7% of the estimated first-year money of the 47 Arcade + Surreal launches.
Arcade is led by REMATCH, with 32.2% of its money.
Surreal is led by INDIKA, with 12.6% of its money.
One game holds over half of this pair's money: read every figure here as that game's story.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Arcade + Surreal is one-hit market: one game earned over half the money.

Arcade + Surreal through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view47 of 47 launches	Without the breakout46 of 47 launches	Last 18 months21 of 47 launches
Launches counted	472 hits	472 hits	461 hits	211 hits
Earned $100k+	2 of 47too few for a rate	2 of 47too few for a rate	1 of 46too few for a rate	1 of 21too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings	$312top tenth $11,899+	$312	$312	$153
Chance against standard	the base	0.0%no change; too few to tell	-48.9%2.1 fewer in 100	+11.9%0.5 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	0.0%no change; too few to tell	0.0%no change	-51.0%$159 less; too few to tell
Does it hold?	The base view	Too few to tell	Moves the answer	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Arcade and Surreal, 12 to 36 months old: 47 launches.

Launches counted: 472 hits
Earned $100k+: 2 of 47too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $312top tenth $11,899+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewToo few to tell

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 0 of 47 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 472 hits
Earned $100k+: 2 of 47too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $312
Chance against standard: 0.0%no change; too few to tell
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change; too few to tell

Without the breakoutMoves the answer

Drops the single biggest earner, Nubby's Number Factory (85.7% of the money): 46 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 461 hits
Earned $100k+: 1 of 46too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $312
Chance against standard: -48.9%2.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 21 of 47.

Launches counted: 211 hits
Earned $100k+: 1 of 21too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $153
Chance against standard: +11.9%0.5 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: -51.0%$159 less; too few to tell

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Arcade and Surreal, 12 to 36 months old: 47 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 0 of 47 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Nubby's Number Factory (85.7% of the money): 46 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 21 of 47.

Arcade is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

Arcade through every lens, all prices
Arcade	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view3,558 of 3,582 launches	Without the breakout3,581 of 3,582 launches	Last 18 months1,003 of 3,582 launches
Launches counted	3,58281 hits	3,55880 hits	3,58180 hits	1,00330 hits
Earned $100k+	2.3 in 1001 in 44	2.2 in 1001 in 44	2.2 in 1001 in 45	3.0 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings	$229top tenth $7,485+	$230	$229	$229
Chance against standard	the base	-0.6%no change	-1.2%no change	+32.3%0.7 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+0.4%$1 more	0.0%no change	0.0%no change
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Arcade, 12 to 36 months old: 3,582 launches.

Launches counted: 3,58281 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.3 in 1001 in 44
Typical first-year earnings: $229top tenth $7,485+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 24 of 3,582 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 3,55880 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.2 in 1001 in 44
Typical first-year earnings: $230
Chance against standard: -0.6%no change
Typical against standard: +0.4%$1 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, REMATCH (32.2% of the money): 3,581 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 3,58180 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.2 in 1001 in 45
Typical first-year earnings: $229
Chance against standard: -1.2%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,003 of 3,582.

Launches counted: 1,00330 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.0 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings: $229
Chance against standard: +32.3%0.7 more in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Arcade, 12 to 36 months old: 3,582 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 24 of 3,582 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, REMATCH (32.2% of the money): 3,581 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,003 of 3,582.

Surreal holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Surreal through every lens, all prices
Surreal	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view552 of 578 launches	Without the breakout577 of 578 launches	Last 18 months156 of 578 launches
Launches counted	57831 hits	55229 hits	57730 hits	1566 hits
Earned $100k+	5.4 in 1001 in 19	5.3 in 1001 in 19	5.2 in 1001 in 19	3.8 in 1001 in 26
Typical first-year earnings	$1,019top tenth $36,298+	$1,012	$1,018	$1,243
Chance against standard	the base	-2.0%0.1 fewer in 100	-3.1%0.2 fewer in 100	-28.3%1.5 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-0.7%$7 less	-0.1%$1 less	+22.0%$224 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Surreal, 12 to 36 months old: 578 launches.

Launches counted: 57831 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.4 in 1001 in 19
Typical first-year earnings: $1,019top tenth $36,298+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 26 of 578 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 55229 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.3 in 1001 in 19
Typical first-year earnings: $1,012
Chance against standard: -2.0%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -0.7%$7 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, INDIKA (12.6% of the money): 577 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 57730 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.2 in 1001 in 19
Typical first-year earnings: $1,018
Chance against standard: -3.1%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -0.1%$1 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 156 of 578.

Launches counted: 1566 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.8 in 1001 in 26
Typical first-year earnings: $1,243
Chance against standard: -28.3%1.5 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +22.0%$224 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Surreal, 12 to 36 months old: 578 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 26 of 578 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, INDIKA (12.6% of the money): 577 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 156 of 578.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Arcade + Surreal moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.