Niche

Arcade + Fantasy

Games tagged both Arcade and Fantasy: 96 indie paid launches, 0 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,280 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price Under $5

All prices1 in 17 hit $100k+Under $51 in 219 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 30 hit $100k+$10 to $2018 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4040 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,280 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

Under $5

Showing Arcade + Fantasy priced under $5.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?Under $5

Arcade + Fantasy is too small to compare with Arcade and is too small to compare with Fantasy: 0 of its 61 launches earned $100k+ priced under $5, against 0.3 in 100 for Arcade and 2 of 762 launches for Fantasy.

Small sample: 61 launches, 0 hits.

TIEA tie

Tag oneArcade

0.3in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds1 in 376

Typical earnings$101

Launches2,256 / 6 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pairArcade + Fantasy

0 of 61launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds0 of 61 launches

Typical earnings$94

Launches61 / 0 hits

Expected0.5 in 100

TIEA tie

Tag twomood tagFantasy

2 of 762launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds2 of 762 launches

Typical earnings$134

Launches762 / 2 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches under $5: 0.5 in 100 earned $100k+ (1 in 219), typical $169, from 13,780 launches.each block is 0.5 in 100 all indie at under $5Fantasy is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 40.0 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices96 in pair Under $561 in pair $5 to $1027 in pair$10 to $206: too few$20 to $402: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 61 games tagged both Arcade and Fantasy priced under $5. 0 of 61 of them earned $100k+, against 0.3 in 100 for Arcade-only games and 2 of 701 for Fantasy-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Arcade alone and is too small to compare with Fantasy alone.

Both: 61 games priced under $5; 0 of 61 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $94.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 61 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Neptunia Riders VS Dogoosleads this pair42.1%

PairNeptunia Riders VS Dogoos42.1%

ArcadeREMATCH32.2%

FantasyGranblue Fantasy: Relink23.2%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 1 of 3, 2 too few to tell. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: too few to tell. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Arcade + Fantasy

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Neptunia Riders VS Dogoos earned 42.1% of the estimated first-year money of the 96 Arcade + Fantasy launches.
Arcade is led by REMATCH, with 32.2% of its money.
Fantasy is led by Granblue Fantasy: Relink, with 23.2% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Arcade + Fantasy holds in Without the breakout; too few to tell in West-facing view and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Arcade + Fantasy through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view96 of 96 launches	Without the breakout95 of 96 launches	Last 18 months25 of 96 launches
Launches counted	960 hits	960 hits	950 hits	250 hits
Earned $100k+	0 of 96too few for a rate	0 of 96too few for a rate	0 of 95too few for a rate	0 of 25too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings	$157top tenth $5,360+	$157	$157	$96
Chance against standard	the base	0.0%no change; too few to tell	0.0%no change	0.0%no change; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	0.0%no change; too few to tell	0.0%no change	-38.9%$61 less; too few to tell
Does it hold?	The base view	Too few to tell	Holds	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Arcade and Fantasy, 12 to 36 months old: 96 launches.

Launches counted: 960 hits
Earned $100k+: 0 of 96too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $157top tenth $5,360+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewToo few to tell

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 0 of 96 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 960 hits
Earned $100k+: 0 of 96too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $157
Chance against standard: 0.0%no change; too few to tell
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change; too few to tell

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Neptunia Riders VS Dogoos (42.1% of the money): 95 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 950 hits
Earned $100k+: 0 of 95too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $157
Chance against standard: 0.0%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 25 of 96.

Launches counted: 250 hits
Earned $100k+: 0 of 25too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $96
Chance against standard: 0.0%no change; too few to tell
Typical against standard: -38.9%$61 less; too few to tell

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Arcade and Fantasy, 12 to 36 months old: 96 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 0 of 96 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Neptunia Riders VS Dogoos (42.1% of the money): 95 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 25 of 96.

Arcade is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

Arcade through every lens, all prices
Arcade	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view3,558 of 3,582 launches	Without the breakout3,581 of 3,582 launches	Last 18 months1,003 of 3,582 launches
Launches counted	3,58281 hits	3,55880 hits	3,58180 hits	1,00330 hits
Earned $100k+	2.3 in 1001 in 44	2.2 in 1001 in 44	2.2 in 1001 in 45	3.0 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings	$229top tenth $7,485+	$230	$229	$229
Chance against standard	the base	-0.6%no change	-1.2%no change	+32.3%0.7 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+0.4%$1 more	0.0%no change	0.0%no change
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Arcade, 12 to 36 months old: 3,582 launches.

Launches counted: 3,58281 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.3 in 1001 in 44
Typical first-year earnings: $229top tenth $7,485+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 24 of 3,582 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 3,55880 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.2 in 1001 in 44
Typical first-year earnings: $230
Chance against standard: -0.6%no change
Typical against standard: +0.4%$1 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, REMATCH (32.2% of the money): 3,581 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 3,58180 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.2 in 1001 in 45
Typical first-year earnings: $229
Chance against standard: -1.2%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,003 of 3,582.

Launches counted: 1,00330 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.0 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings: $229
Chance against standard: +32.3%0.7 more in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Arcade, 12 to 36 months old: 3,582 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 24 of 3,582 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, REMATCH (32.2% of the money): 3,581 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,003 of 3,582.

Fantasy holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Fantasy through every lens, all prices
Fantasy	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view1,687 of 1,767 launches	Without the breakout1,766 of 1,767 launches	Last 18 months515 of 1,767 launches
Launches counted	1,76790 hits	1,68786 hits	1,76689 hits	51529 hits
Earned $100k+	5.1 in 1001 in 20	5.1 in 1001 in 20	5.0 in 1001 in 20	5.6 in 1001 in 18
Typical first-year earnings	$563top tenth $26,247+	$568	$563	$574
Chance against standard	the base	+0.1%no change	-1.1%0.1 fewer in 100	+10.6%0.5 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+0.9%$5 more	0.0%no change	+2.0%$11 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Fantasy, 12 to 36 months old: 1,767 launches.

Launches counted: 1,76790 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.1 in 1001 in 20
Typical first-year earnings: $563top tenth $26,247+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 80 of 1,767 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1,68786 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.1 in 1001 in 20
Typical first-year earnings: $568
Chance against standard: +0.1%no change
Typical against standard: +0.9%$5 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Granblue Fantasy: Relink (23.2% of the money): 1,766 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1,76689 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.0 in 1001 in 20
Typical first-year earnings: $563
Chance against standard: -1.1%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 515 of 1,767.

Launches counted: 51529 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.6 in 1001 in 18
Typical first-year earnings: $574
Chance against standard: +10.6%0.5 more in 100
Typical against standard: +2.0%$11 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Fantasy, 12 to 36 months old: 1,767 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 80 of 1,767 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Granblue Fantasy: Relink (23.2% of the money): 1,766 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 515 of 1,767.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Arcade + Fantasy moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.