Comparables
LeadersTop earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkOne-hit market. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewTicker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Arcade + Driving
Games tagged both Arcade and Driving: 141 indie paid launches, 12 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Arcade + Driving priced $10 to $20, hiding samples under 30 launches. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats Arcade and trails Driving; priced $10 to $20 it has too few launches to read.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
22 launches, under your minimum sample of 30.
Pick another price band, or lower the minimum sample.
22 launches, under your minimum sample of 30.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 22 games tagged both Arcade and Driving priced $10 to $20. 7 of 22 of them earned $100k+, against 10.2 in 100 for Arcade-only games and 30.8 in 100 for Driving-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Arcade alone and is too small to compare with Driving alone.
Both: 22 games priced $10 to $20; 7 of 22 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 21 of 22 launches · $10k+ 12 of 22 launches · $100k+ 7 of 22 launches.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 22 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkOne-hit market. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Arcade + Driving is one-hit market: one game earned over half the money. It holds in West-facing view and Last 18 months.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view140 of 141 launches | Without the breakout140 of 141 launches | Last 18 months42 of 141 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 14112 hits | 14012 hits | 14011 hits | 426 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 8.5 in 1001 in 12 | 8.6 in 1001 in 12 | 7.9 in 1001 in 13 | 14.3 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $613top tenth $49,756+ | $650 | $613 | under 100 launches |
| Chance against standard | the base | +0.7%0.1 more in 100 | -7.7%0.7 fewer in 100 | +67.9%5.8 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +6.0%$37 more | 0.0%no change | under 100 launches |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Moves the answer | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Arcade and Driving, 12 to 36 months old: 141 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 1 of 141 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, JDM: Japanese Drift Master (56.7% of the money): 140 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 42 of 141.
Arcade is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.
| Arcade | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view3,559 of 3,583 launches | Without the breakout3,582 of 3,583 launches | Last 18 months1,001 of 3,583 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 3,58389 hits | 3,55988 hits | 3,58288 hits | 1,00134 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 2.5 in 1001 in 40 | 2.5 in 1001 in 40 | 2.5 in 1001 in 41 | 3.4 in 1001 in 29 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $219top tenth $8,430+ | $220 | $219 | $214 |
| Chance against standard | the base | -0.5%no change | -1.1%no change | +36.7%0.9 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +0.5%$1 more | 0.0%no change | -2.3%$5 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged Arcade, 12 to 36 months old: 3,583 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 24 of 3,583 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, REMATCH (33.7% of the money): 3,582 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,001 of 3,583.
Driving holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| Driving | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view389 of 394 launches | Without the breakout393 of 394 launches | Last 18 months112 of 394 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 39453 hits | 38953 hits | 39352 hits | 11211 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 13.5 in 100 | 13.6 in 100 | 13.2 in 100 | 9.8 in 1001 in 10 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,023top tenth $171,842+ | $1,023 | $1,017 | $843 |
| Chance against standard | the base | +1.3%0.2 more in 100 | -1.6%0.2 fewer in 100 | -27.0%3.6 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | 0.0%no change | -0.6%$6 less | -17.6%$180 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Driving, 12 to 36 months old: 394 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 5 of 394 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Assetto Corsa EVO (14.0% of the money): 393 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 112 of 394.
A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Arcade + Driving moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.