Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Arcade + Casual
Games tagged both Arcade and Casual: 1,971 indie paid launches, 24 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Arcade + Casual priced $10 to $20.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Arcade + Casual trails both its tags: 3.2 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 10.7 in 100 for Arcade and 12.9 in 100 for Casual.
That is 1 in 31, about 0.2 times the 18.6 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 124 games tagged both Arcade and Casual priced $10 to $20. 3.2 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 14.2 for Arcade-only games and 14.1 for Casual-only games, so games with both tags did worse than games with either tag alone.
Both: 124 games priced $10 to $20; 3.2 in 100 earned $100k+ (1 in 31), typical first-year earnings $1,214.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 124 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Arcade + Casual holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,958 of 1,971 launches | Without the breakout1,970 of 1,971 launches | Last 18 months1,106 of 1,971 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,97124 hits | 1,95823 hits | 1,97023 hits | 1,10615 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 1.2 in 1001 in 83 | 1.2 in 1001 in 83 | 1.2 in 1001 in 83 | 1.4 in 1001 in 71 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $180top tenth $3,909+ | $180 | $180 | $162 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | +16.7%0.2 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | -10.0%$18 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Arcade and Casual, 6 to 30 months old: 1,971 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 13 of 1,971 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, JDM: Japanese Drift Master (23.5% of the money): 1,970 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,106 of 1,971.
Arcade holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Arcade | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view4,022 of 4,045 launches | Without the breakout4,044 of 4,045 launches | Last 18 months2,226 of 4,045 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 4,04599 hits | 4,02297 hits | 4,04498 hits | 2,22657 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 2.4 in 1001 in 42 | 2.4 in 1001 in 42 | 2.4 in 1001 in 42 | 2.6 in 1001 in 38 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $243top tenth $8,098+ | $243 | $243 | $242 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | +8.3%0.2 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | -0.4%$1 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Arcade, 6 to 30 months old: 4,045 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 23 of 4,045 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, REMATCH (25.5% of the money): 4,044 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,226 of 4,045.
Casual holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Casual | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view10,520 of 11,118 launches | Without the breakout11,117 of 11,118 launches | Last 18 months6,267 of 11,118 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 11,118317 hits | 10,520295 hits | 11,117316 hits | 6,267190 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 2.9 in 1001 in 34 | 2.8 in 1001 in 36 | 2.8 in 1001 in 36 | 3.0 in 1001 in 33 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $303top tenth $10,765+ | $303 | $303 | $282 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -3.4%0.1 fewer in 100 | -3.4%0.1 fewer in 100 | +3.4%0.1 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | -6.9%$21 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 6 to 30 months old: 11,118 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 598 of 11,118 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Hello Kitty Island Adventure (3.3% of the money): 11,117 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 6,267 of 11,118.
A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Arcade + Casual moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.