Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026
Adventure + Runner: a typical launch earns $101 in its first year
That is the median of 78 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 2 of 157 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 5.0 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases fell 4% on the year before: 90 against 94.
- One game dominates the figure
- Price
- $101 median of 78 launches
- Price vs a year earlier
- −34.9% four quarters on the four before
- Releases, 12 months
- 90 94 the year before
- Upcoming games
- 157 coming soon on Steam
- Games on the store
- 710 carrying both tags
Boards
as of 30 Sep 2026Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.
| Board | Value | Interval | Sample | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.
| 0.22%share of upcoming wishlist heat | 0.02% to 0.62% | 7 ranked of 157 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026 | #4,985 of 7,193pairs on this board |
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.
| 0.63xhits against expected | 0.46x to 1.12x | 157 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old) | #5,128 of 6,324pairs on this board |
| Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches. | Below this board's minimum sample, so not ranked. Needs 15 or more tracked games and 20 or more releases in each 12-month period. | |||
| Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal. | Below this board's minimum sample, so not ranked. Needs 15 or more tracked games and 1,000 reviews in each window. | |||
Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.
Launch success
launches 6 to 30 months oldMatured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.
- Launches
- 157
- Hit rate
- 1.3%0.0% to 3.5%
- Expected rate
- 3.2%
- Against expected
- 0.63x0.46x to 1.12x
Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.
Revenue spread
157 launchesEstimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.
- Bottom tenth
- $0
- Median
- $101
- Top tenth
- $1,966
Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.
Supply
raw release countsGames released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.
- Change
- −4%
Parent tags
Comparable games
8 indie titlesThe biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.
- Haste (opens the Steam store)2025 · 12,741 reviews, 92% positiveest. $5M
- Island Notes (opens the Steam store)2025 · 885 reviews, 82% positiveest. $233k
- The Alto Collection (opens the Steam store)2024 · 263 reviews, 94% positiveest. $53k
- Otokonoko Fishing (opens the Steam store)2024 · 72 reviews, 90% positiveest. $17k
- Care Bears: To The Rescue (opens the Steam store)2024 · 54 reviews, 98% positiveest. $16k
- RHYTHMKILL (opens the Steam store)2026 · 50 reviews, 78% positiveest. $10k
- 网瘾少年2005 Internet addicted youth 2005 (opens the Steam store)2023 · 427 reviews, 96% positiveest. $9.5k
- Run Pizza Run (opens the Steam store)2024 · 83 reviews, 86% positiveest. $8.4k
More with Adventure
pairs with Adventure- Adventure + Cozy$32,10838 launches priced, 93 releases in 12 months
- Adventure + Narrative$12,85033 launches priced, 48 releases in 12 months
- Adventure + LGBTQ+$7,36637 launches priced, 54 releases in 12 months
- Adventure + Online Co-Op$6,34186 launches priced, 187 releases in 12 months
- Adventure + Base Building$5,35342 launches priced, 47 releases in 12 months
- Adventure + Building$4,85745 launches priced, 62 releases in 12 months
More with Runner
pairs with Runner- Funny + Runner$54531 launches priced, 24 releases in 12 months
- 3D Platformer + Runner$18271 launches priced, 92 releases in 12 months
- Exploration + Runner$16233 launches priced, 38 releases in 12 months
- Cute + Runner$15549 launches priced, 64 releases in 12 months
- Arcade + Runner$132114 launches priced, 170 releases in 12 months
- Action-Adventure + Runner$13270 launches priced, 78 releases in 12 months
Verdicts
in developmentGMD Verdicts will be a written read on a niche, built from the same data and the published method on this site. Join the early list and we will email you when the first ones are ready. Nothing on this page is held back while you wait.