Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
2D + Casual
Games tagged both 2D and Casual: 4,338 indie paid launches, 66 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing 2D + Casual priced $10 to $20, without the breakout. Lens figures exist at all prices only, so inside a price band the page shows the standard figures.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
2D + Casual trails both its tags: 8.1 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 14.4 in 100 for 2D and 12.9 in 100 for Casual.
That is 1 in 12, about 0.4 times the 18.6 in 100 expected for any launch at this price. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this band uses the standard figures.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 308 games tagged both 2D and Casual priced $10 to $20. 8.1 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 17.1 for 2D-only games and 14.8 for Casual-only games, so games with both tags did worse than games with either tag alone.
Both: 308 games priced $10 to $20; 8.1 in 100 earned $100k+ (1 in 12), typical first-year earnings $1,821.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 308 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet. The without the breakout lens is not computed for the outer parts, so this diagram uses the standard figures.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
2D + Casual holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view4,080 of 4,338 launches | Without the breakout4,337 of 4,338 launches | Last 18 months2,403 of 4,338 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 4,33866 hits | 4,08063 hits | 4,33765 hits | 2,40341 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 1.5 in 1001 in 67 | 1.5 in 1001 in 67 | 1.5 in 1001 in 67 | 1.7 in 1001 in 59 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $201top tenth $4,547+ | $202 | $201 | $162 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | +13.3%0.2 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +0.5%$1 more | 0.0%no change | -19.4%$39 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both 2D and Casual, 6 to 30 months old: 4,338 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 258 of 4,338 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Thank Goodness You're Here! (8.7% of the money): 4,337 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,403 of 4,338.
2D holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| 2D | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view8,723 of 9,279 launches | Without the breakout9,278 of 9,279 launches | Last 18 months5,071 of 9,279 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 9,279280 hits | 8,723261 hits | 9,278279 hits | 5,071141 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 3.0 in 1001 in 33 | 3.0 in 1001 in 33 | 3.0 in 1001 in 33 | 2.8 in 1001 in 36 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $303top tenth $12,749+ | $303 | $303 | $243 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | -6.7%0.2 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | -19.8%$60 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged 2D, 6 to 30 months old: 9,279 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 556 of 9,279 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (32.4% of the money): 9,278 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 5,071 of 9,279.
Casual holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Casual | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view10,520 of 11,118 launches | Without the breakout11,117 of 11,118 launches | Last 18 months6,267 of 11,118 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 11,118317 hits | 10,520295 hits | 11,117316 hits | 6,267190 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 2.9 in 1001 in 34 | 2.8 in 1001 in 36 | 2.8 in 1001 in 36 | 3.0 in 1001 in 33 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $303top tenth $10,765+ | $303 | $303 | $282 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -3.4%0.1 fewer in 100 | -3.4%0.1 fewer in 100 | +3.4%0.1 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | -6.9%$21 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 6 to 30 months old: 11,118 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 598 of 11,118 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Hello Kitty Island Adventure (3.3% of the money): 11,117 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 6,267 of 11,118.
A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when 2D + Casual moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.