Action RPG + Open World: idea check

1Your idea

2The readout

Your odds

27 in 100 Action RPG + Open World launches at $10 to $20 earned $100k+ in their first year. That is better than the 19 in 100 for all indie launches at $10 to $20: about 1.5 times the rate.

Chance of $100k+

27 in 100

Notch: 19 in 100 for all indie launches at $10 to $20.

Typical first year

$8,803

9% of the way to $100k. Half earned less. Notch: $9,226, every game at $10 to $20.

Competition

48 launches

At $10 to $20, in two years (about 24 a year). Busier than 87 in 100 tag pairs; the notch is the middle one.

Coming soon

363 games

Coming-soon games with these tags. More than 91 in 100 tag pairs. Highest on wishlists: The Bustling World (#46), V.A Proxy (#136).

What launches like this earned in their first year

The $100k line sits between the typical launch and the top quarter.

Typical launchHalf earned less$8,8039% of the way to $100k.

Top quarter1 in 4 earned at least$110,510Just past the $100k line.

Top tenth1 in 10 earned at least$368,3663.7 times the $100k line.

Action RPG + Open World at $10 to $20 past the $100k line (squeezed to fit, not to scale) every game at $10 to $20

Warning lamps

3 of 5 lit

One-hit marketLit
No Rest for the Wicked earned 72% of all the money. Read the typical figure, not the hits.
Audience splitOff
Clear.
Small sampleOff
Clear.
May be luckLit
Reads better than the 19 in 100 for all indie launches at $10 to $20, but with 48 launches a gap this size often comes from chance alone.
Changed recentlyLit
Launches from the last 18 months: 1 in 15, against 16 in 100 across both years.

Lens checkOne-hit market +1. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: moves the answer.

Standard, West-facing view, Without the breakout, Last 18 months. Lenses use all prices.

Earnings are estimated from store reviews, so the $100k line is soft: across the estimate's range, the share of all indie launches above it runs from about 5 to 8 in 100.

Indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, measured 1 Oct 2026. Coming-soon counts from the store, 30 Sep 2026.

3What next

Monthly read

Free

A monthly read on Action RPG + Open World

Once a month we re-measure your odds at $10 to $20 and tell you in plain words what changed.

Your odds, re-measured on the latest launches
How last month's launches with these tags did
Who is about to launch, highest on wishlists first

If the read went out today 1 Oct 2026

Your odds27 in 100 earned $100k+ at $10 to $20, against 19 in 100 for all indie launches at $10 to $20.
EarningsTypical first year $8,803; 1 in 10 earned $368,366 or more.
Launches99 games of every kind with these tags in the last 12 months (82 the year before).
Coming soon363 games; highest on wishlists The Bustling World (#46).

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Comparables

Lifetime

Top earners with these tags, est. lifetime grossFree until launch

No Rest for the Wickedlaunched 2024, 66,299 reviews$46.8M

1No Rest for the Wicked$46.8M2024

2DragonSword : Awakening$5.8M2026

3Drova - Forsaken Kin$4.6M2024

4Farever$3.6M2026

5The Quinfall$2.4M2025

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockLifetime top earners like yours

4Data notes

Odds and earnings: Wave-a figures, generated 1 Oct 2026: 29,637 indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old (majors, $40+, adult and free games out). A hit is an estimated first-year revenue of $100k or more. "Typical" is the median; "top quarter" is the 75th percentile and "top tenth" the 90th.
Tags and combinations: 329 tags (genres and descriptors such as 2D and Casual), 5,145 tag pairs and 9,720 three-tag combinations. Pairs and triples are only in the data with 40 or more launches, so a missing one has fewer than 40; the exact count is not stored.
Price band rates: under $5: 1 in 200 (15,379 launches); $5 to $10: 1 in 26 (8,218 launches); $10 to $20: 19 in 100 (4,810 launches); $20 to $40: 42 in 100 (1,230 launches). All prices: 1 in 16. With "Any price", the comparison is all indie launches.
Gauges: Competition places the pick among combinations of the same size (single tags, pairs or triples) at the same price; coming soon places single tags and pairs among all genres and niches. The notch is the middle one. Earnings notches show every game at the price.
Lamps: One-hit market: one game holds over half the money, or dropping it moves the chance over 25%. Audience split: the West-facing view (games mostly reviewed outside China) moves typical earnings over 10% or the chance over 25%. Small sample: under 30 launches. May be luck: the gap to the base rate is inside what chance produces 95 times in 100 (a two-sided binomial test). Changed recently: launches from the last 18 months move the chance over 25%, or there are under 10 of them.
Lens check: Computed on all-price figures (by-price lens figures are not computed yet). Standard is the yardstick and is not counted. Three-tag combinations carry no lenses yet, so their pips stay grey.
Competition: Launches in the two-year sample. Coming-soon counts for tags and pairs come from the nightly niche rollup (30 Sep 2026); for three tags, from the coming-soon list, which stores only each game's top five tags, so the count is a floor. Named games are the highest on wishlists; adult-tagged games are left out.
Comparables: The top indie earners stored for these tags, with estimated lifetime gross (not first year). Three-tag combinations have none stored, so the card shows the most specific readable pair inside and says so. Matching by price and launch year is not computed yet.
Soft estimate: Revenue is reviews times a multiplier times price. Across the multiplier's range the overall base rate runs 4.8% to 8.4%, so every readout carries that note.

Idea check